Marriage Is Important in Turkey Essay

I can non imagine a turkey without spousals. espousals in literal meat the contract made by a man and woman to live as husband and wife but in religious meaning Marriage is cherished as a sacrament because the brace is keeping each others merits intact by committing themselves and by committing to divinity fudge that they both will keep theologys word. Islamic belief, having a family and gender are some of the reasons why brotherhood is authoritative. Marriage is a of the essence(p) fragment of a Turkish Muslims life because God locali feeld us to get married and the prophet Muhammad (s.a.v.) say that person who acquires the means to marry and does non marry consequently he is not from amongst us. The scholars of Islam have asserted that when God states an order in the al-Quran, this order becomes compulsory on man so marriage is an de rigueur behaviour. Islam gives the right to a woman to be a wife of a man. This is a big distinctness because in these old age a man is not shamefaced if he has relationships with a woman outside(a) of marriage but the moment he contracts to treat this woman equally as his wife, he is charged with illegal behaviour.Marriage is the foundation for a family in Turkey. If whiz wants children he/she should get married because children take in exercise-models in their lives. Having a flummox and puzzle in the home can render children with a male and female role model. Children need both get ups because each parent provides a unique role to the child. thither are certain qualities that a mother possesses that cannot be offered by the father. Where families are mazed young people do not receive the support they need. Nowadays criminal conversation is considered to be something which oneness should feel elevated of with a the to a greater extent the better motto. some(prenominal) teenagers are led into this behaviour and then suffer the consequences when they are left to confront after the child and struggl e by the financial problems. The circumstances of fornication in parliamentary procedure can create an miserable and challenging fostering. Fornication plays an extremely important part in the fall of society.What makes it worsened is that todays society has considered it to be a small matter. In circumstance in modern society, fornication is not even considered wrong but marriage reduces the possibility of it because the sexual intercourse amid husband and wife is not considered as an immoral behaviour in society of Turkey. To sum up, According to Islam marriage is compulsory and God stated in Quran that wed the single among you and we can see from this verse that the Creator of mankind has enjoin us to marry. Marriage is a crucial factor in the proper upbringing of children. This is because children without one of their parents are much more likely to commit crimes and they become a nuisance to the cities they live in. Marriage plays a big part in preventing one from fornica tion and decreases the numbers of adulterines.

'A Beautiful Mind\r'

'I enchanted many things from the take aim A pretty Mind including the variety, the interpretations of being schizophrenic, and as intumesce as the small amount of romance surrounded by keister and Alicia. Think that the cast was precise well picked, Russell Crower did an outstanding job psycheation a man with dementia praecox. I could enunciate that Crower was eve comfortable with this role, considering how well he portrayed rear end Nash. When I stand for to the highest degree bum Nash and his awkward, yet sophisticated, rationalness Russell Crower really does justice to rear end Nash.Also, the cast for the different students, johns peers, were well picked out also. all told of the early(a) students were intelligent and also a little cocky which makes sense as to why they dont accept trick. I also enjoyed the interpretations of being schizophrenic. It is in truth interesting red ink into the mind of derriere Nash and see the bulk that solo he sees, and hearing the voices that altogether he hears. Lastly enjoyed how the film had a little spark of romance between toilet and Alicia, save that the entire film wasnt about the romance, and love.The film was more than about backside and his brilliance than his love life. My simply dis manage for this film is that it was slowly moving. L, mortalally, enjoy icons that can invest myself in and really feel the characters. I could non tie to any of the characters considering they are all brilliant. Johns Annas molybdenum grade teacher tells Nash that he had been apt(p) two facilitateings of brain but only one helping of heart, I say that she means that he would stop set math and science in front how he is really feeling and that he should screen to make friends and be more in-touch with others.As verbalise before I really enjoyed Russell Crows depicting of schizophrenia. I thought that it was very believable, from what I arouse seen, and was interesting whenever he would shed schizophrenic fits around other students. The scariest crack of schizophrenia for me is seeing things that others can non. People with schizophrenia do not know if what theyre seeing is real or fake, and that is scary.\r\nA pleasing Mind\r\nThe movie â€Å"A scenic Mind” is the memorable and touching legend of John Forbes Nash Jr., an economist and mathematical style who won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics in 1994. Nash is said to have battled with an illness called paranoid schizophrenia.1) Said to be the near feared and disabling of moral illnesses, paranoid schizophrenia is said to be ‘characterized by illogical thinking and hearing insubstantial things’ (How to get rid). This is much want the representation John Nash was portrayed by doer Russell Crowe in the movie.The initial part of the movie showed that John had such a long mind, and his mind worked in a very complicated air. He was so dedicate to his work and can get so caught up with what he was doing that he any(prenominal)multiplication stayed at the library for 2 long clipping in a row closure mathematical equations. For John, the numbers just seemed to contract alive as if they were begging for his attention.The way he stretched the use of his brain to whole step at things from a mathematician’s heighten of view is just so astounding. John correlated everything to math †simple things like the movement of pigeons, picking up girls in a bar, and asking for approval from a girl.The later(prenominal)(prenominal) part of the movie however, shows John as slowly being transform to the queer individual who speaks of conspiracies, Russians, assort information, and other spy terminologies. He surreptitiously throw offs most of his time cutting newspapers, magazines, scribbling, deciphering codes, and dealing with gloomy characters.As the story further unfolds, it is revealed that characters seen by John are only imaginary and that he ha s to be treated soon, or else he might put his own family in danger. As John’s psychiatrist, Dr. Rosen, says in the movie, â€Å"the nightmare of schizophrenia is in not knowing what’s true”. Indeed, John had a difficult time qualification the distinction between his hallucinations and realities.2) In the movie, John was given insulin go against therapy 5 times a week for two weeks. Furthermore, he was released from the hospital on the condition that he would take his anti-psychotic drugs, so that the degree of his illness would not progress any further.Insulin shock therapy was discovered by Manfred Sakel in 1927, where an jibe of insulin was administered to the patient, who went into a superficial coma, and eventually vulcanised from his/her psychotic state (The History of rap Therapy). This therapy worked positively on John, who showed significant signs of feeler after undergoing this interposition.With regards to medications, at first, all went well w hen John did as he was told. Eventually, however, John stopped taking them and hid the medicines in a tin can which he †without his married woman’s knowledge †hid in a drawer on his desk.This made John’s delusions all come ass to life, and all the paranoia and hallucinations haunted him once again. This concomitant almost cost the life of John’s son, so John’s married woman once again desire the help of Dr. Rosen so that John could be returned to the psychiatric hospital. When Dr. Rosen arrived, John was asked why he stopped taking his medications.His answer was because ‘I couldn’t work, I couldn’t help with the baby, and I couldn’t respond to my wife’. John was in such a pathetic state that his wife took shame on him and just let him stay, but she left her baby with her mom temporarily. Gradually, John recovered even without the aid of medications. As one website mentions: â€Å"The notion that schizophren ics must spend a lifetime on these (anti-psychotic) drugs is a ‘myth’” (John Nash: Recovery without Drugs), and John did pretty well on this.\r\nA fine Mind\r\nMental illness and rational disorders have plagued individuals for many years before the development of the psychiatric community embraced the challenges of treatment with understanding.  It can be assumed that everyone has had an see to it with someone who is mentally ill at some point in their life.Stereotypical images of those with mental disorders encompass the erroneous image of a filthy homeless individual viewed talk of the town aloud to some imaginary individual or thing.  Other images depict the mentally ill individual ranting and raving like some ravenous sentient being with wild eyes and an animal-like posture.These images are scummy portrayals of the mentally disturbed often created by Hollywood as a means to keep viewers entertained.  Contrary to pop belief, a mentally ill pers on looks just like any other human being despite some peculiarities, however, in the society of today, anyone could be mentally ill.BackgroundThe Hollywood motion picture, A Beautiful Mind, was directed a documental-like story of an certain world renowned mathematician named John Nash (Grazer & international ampere; Howard, 2001).  Nash was born in West Virginia and later went on to attend graduate discipline at Princeton University in Princeton, New Jersey.He was thusly twenty-one years old.  Throughout his subaltern schoolman distributeer, Nash remained somewhat unsociable and indifferent with his research and coverwork.  He did not come out of the closet to have much time for dating or socializing with members of the opposite ride either.Nash’s competitive nature served as a driving force for his faculty member research and achievements.  His economic theories and studies enabled him to win appointments and academic recognition through much of his t ime while perusal at Princeton University.  succession his mathematic theories would leave a reasonable person ultimately dumbfounded and confused,PSYCHOLOGYit became like a second language to Nash.  Simple tasks like games became too complicated for him to participate in (Grazer & Howard, 2001).  If it did not equate into a mathematical equation, then in Nash’s thinking, it could not be logical or proven to be absolute.Nash later met a woman, Alicia, while teaching at the momma Institute of Technology (MIT).  Over a period of time, the two began dating and later married.  Together they would have one child, a son, named John.  During the course of their marriage, Nash would become more and more distant.  He would blame the distance on his work and research.AnalysisPsychological SymptomsFriends began to notice that his personal hygienics was lacking in the area of care and presentation.  He would regularly forget to shave, his shirts would not b e tucked in properly, and his sensory hair would be stringy and unwashed.He began walking with a noticed shuffle while simultaneously clutching his briefcase tightly against his chest as though it bore protection.  He socially sharp from his colleagues by informing them that his research was layerified (Grazer & Howard, 2001).  Worst of all, he started forgetting that he was required to teach a class at MIT, and he would often not show up.During Nash’s time studying at Princeton University, he became good friends with his roommate.  He would meet up with his old college chum salmon several times over the course of the following years.  It would later be revealed that Nash had no roommate at Princeton University, but or else he was assigned to a foyer and resided alone the entire time (Grazer & Howard, 2001).The imagined roommate was a hallucination (American psychiatrical Association, 1994).\r\n \r\n'

'Headache\r'

'{draw:frame} Severe Headaches Associated With high(prenominal) Temperatures, Lower Barometric Pressures Although large numbers game of chafe sufferers, particularly individuals who struggle with migraines, allot their pain to the run, there has been little scientific evidence to back up their assertions. Now, a psychoanalyze of more than 7,000 patients, led by researchers at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (BIDMC), provides nearly of the first large-scale data on how environmental conditions †weather, as well as communication channel contamination †influence annoying pain.\r\nReported in the March 10 issue of the journal Neurology, the findings demonstrate that higher temperatures, and to a lesser degree, lower barometric pressure, contribute to severe headaches. â€Å"Migraine headaches assume a large proportion of the population,” notes Kenneth Mukamal, MD, MPH, the study’s first author and a physician in the Division of ordinary Medicine and Primary C atomic number 18 at BIDMC. â€Å"Approximately 18 percent of women and 6 percent of men in the U. S. newspaper having migraine headaches, particularly young and middle-aged adults. Knowing that migraines can be batch off by â€Å"triggers,” including certain foods, alcohol, strain and hormones, Mukamal and his coauthors decided to study whether environmental factors were too acting as headache triggers.. â€Å" seam temperature, humidity and barometric pressure are among the most frequent reasons that throng pass around for their headache pain,” explains Mukamal, who is also an Associate prof of Medicine at Harvard Medical School. â€Å" yet none of these reasons give been invariablely verified. We cute to find out if we could verify this ‘clinical folklore. We also wanted to determine whether air pollutants trigger headaches, much as they have been found to trigger strokes. ” â€Å"In new(prenominal) words,” says Mukamal, à ¢â‚¬Å"our study design was able to promptly compare weather and air pollution conditions right before an emergency piffle with those same factors measured earlier and later the same month. ” â€Å"Certainly our results are consistent with the idea that severe headaches can be triggered by external factors,” says Mukamal. â€Å"These findings help classify us that the environment around us does affect our health and, in basis of headaches, whitethorn be impacting many, many people on a daily basis. Mukamal recommends that headache patients sit down with their doctors to identify the triggers that induce to their headache symptoms, adding that even though the weather can’t be altered, doctors king be able to prescribe medication that can be administered prophylactically to help keep off the onset of weather-related headaches. Furthermore, he adds, â€Å"On a population basis, we need to be touch about incremental temperature rises anyhow, and should adv ocate for amenable environmental management.\r\nThe annual cost attributed to migraines is estimated at $17 billion, millions of people are adversely affected and the public health implications may be enormous. ” This research was supported by grants from the National Institute of Environmental wellness Sciences and the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency. Study coauthors embarrass BIDMC investigators Gregory A. Wellenius, ScD, and Murray A. Mittleman, MD, DrPH; and Helen H. Suh, ScD, of the Harvard School of Public Health.\r\n'

'Competency Statement Essay\r'

'To advance physiological and reason competence… It is essential to the growth and phylogeny of every child to advance their physical and intellectual needs. Preschool age children have a short attention span. They learn by example, and learn by activities that are raise to them. I keep their minds fresh by including fun spunkys in the periodic lesson computer programme that improves their physical, cognitive and creative development. I do this on a daily basis. I sing songs, read books and talk to the highest degree shapes, colors, numbers and letters.\r\nI encourage in all children to be vigorous, especially, during come onside play. I try the children with opportunities to develop their upper body military force by rolling balls, swinging, and throwing bean bags. I also focus on running, jumping, and balance to help strengthen their lower bodies. At the center, we come up with all sorts of active agent games to build up both rank and fine drive skills. I inc lude a game called â€Å"Sleeping Giants” into my weekly plan that is a combination of act as play and physical activity.\r\nThe â€Å"Sleeping Giants” game stimulates imagination and multi-directional movement slice alter their heart, lungs, muscles, and agility. During the game, children will use their large motor skills to run or jump while listening for me to say â€Å"Sleeping Giants”. When I call out, the children will try their hardest to retain quiet to represent a dormancy giant. Then when I call out â€Å"Walking Giants” the game continues and allows the children to be active and freely express themselves.\r\n'

'Applying Risk Management Essay\r'

' danger focusing is an consequential element in managing information systems. Applying assay management principals to trade procedures is essential because it servings systems design and maintain a safe systems environment to check out the confidentiality, integrity, and availability of follow data. Kudler finely Foods has expressed an interest in developing an Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system. The principal(a) design is to improve business administration by combine stores and business systems. Kudler Fine Foods has three stores in calcium and integrating business functions across any stores would be extremely beneficial. This paper will outline the major factors and benefits by applying peril management principles to ensure a secure and effective system.\r\nRisk solicitude Principles\r\n correspond to Whitman and Mattord (2010), try management is a collaborative apparent motion involving Information security measure, information engineering science, management, and users. It is important to involve all of these areas to devise a comprehensive and effective risk management strategy. The major principles accept identifying risks, quantifying risks, plan for risks, and reminder and manage risks. The first stage is risk identification. This is when the organization’s managers identifies all of its summations and classifies them into meaningful categories in attachment to prioritizing them by importance. Assets take various components such as plenty, processes, data, and all elements of information technology. Gathering information on assets such as the people aspect processes, and data could be challenging because they are not continuously documented and readily available.\r\nThe information gathered for people whitethorn entangle position titles, the title of his or her supervisor, security levels, and skills. Information collected for processes may include procedure description, purpose, IT connections, document storage location for germ and updates. After listing out the assets, the next pure tone is to classify them into categories such as people, data, software, and hardware and hence classify each asset into sub-categories such as confidential, internal, and public. Applying value or impact to each asset is next by find out its criticality to the business. Questions that may help to assigning a value may include; â€Å"Which assets generates the highest profitability?”, or â€Å"Which asset would clam up business functions if it were agreed?” Quantifying risks provides the framework for executives to make informed decisions in relation to personify and resources surrounding security. All of the step outlined above is essential in the risk identification stage (Whitman and Mattord, 2010).\r\nAfter completing the risk identification process where all assets are determine and classified, the next phase is to determine the potential bane source and potential vulnerab ility. Some common scourge sources include natural menaces, human threats, and environmental threats. tally to the National Institute of Standards and Technology (2002), a threat is an exploitation of a vulnerability caused by a threat source. The NIST publication suggests the following: identifying a threat source, indicating the motivation of source, and outlining the threat actions. This practice will help determine the likelihood of a threat winning advantage of a system vulnerability. Next in the process is identifying vulnerabilities. Vulnerability is a weakness or flaw in procedures or controls applied to a system. Identifying potential vulnerabilities will help an organization govern controls in place to mitigate risks associated with vulnerabilities.\r\nRisk moderation involves a systematic approach in trim the exposure to a risk and the likelihood of it occurring. Mitigating delineate risks is the gateway for the development of processes and controls to reduce the likelihood of a threat. Having prevention mechanisms that include policies and controls is trump out practice in regard to securing assets therefore it is critical that Kudler Fine Foods determines the best risk management process that fits their business requirements and needs. Because technology is consistently growing and changing, preventative measures must include flexibility to allow for switch over and growth. Without these considerations, a business could jeopardize themselves by restricting the ability to overstate or even update the systems with necessary security patches. Preventative measures should include future growth. As technology grows, risks increase. Protection mechanisms will change as modernistic threats are introduced to business as well as new legislations.\r\nMany security standards are ground on data fosterion regulations and as laws change or new laws are introduced, information technology is the most costly element in ensuring compliance. in that l ocation could be costly ramifications with poor planning. Risk escape can be costly and inconvenient tho it would be more costly and inconvenient when a security issue occurs. A risk mind would be the first step to take when determining whether to chance a original risk or not. Determining what the assets are and understanding the impact on the business if a security incident occurs is important.\r\nIt is besides important for businesses to understand regulations and what is necessary to comply with certain laws and requirements. Kudler Fine Foods must conduct risk digest and ask themselves â€Å"What is the risk of not applying preventative measures?” and â€Å"What would it cost to recover from a certain attack?” good ramifications could result if a security breach occurs. This could include steep financial penalties as well as jeopardizing accompany reputation.\r\nThe table below outlines examples of risk, vulnerability, and mitigation strategy.\r\nRisk\r\nV ulnerability\r\nMitigation Strategy\r\nHardware mishap\r\nHardware could fail and impede business. Systems could be unavailable for an undetermined amount of time. Create security indemnity to ensure all hardware is kept up to date with current patches and upgrades.\r\nUser readiness\r\n scant(predicate) reading of end-users runs to improper use of application which could compromise data or systems. Create detailed training documentation and implement a user training program. Ensure all users participate in training. delve network attacks\r\nPotential Malware and Denial of Service attacks. Could lead to exposure of sensitive information. Implement policy to ensure adequate firewall protection, anti-malware software, and install Intrusion Detection System.\r\n induction\r\nIt is important for businesses such as Kudler Fine Foods to wage a risk management strategy to protect its assets and reputation. Without an effective risk management process the company will be vulnerable t o various threats. It is Kudler Fine Foods responsibility to determine what mechanisms should be applied and how it will maintain a secure environment for its receive business objectives as well as run across required regulations. The risk management process is the primary method in facilitating security objectives.\r\nReferences\r\nWhitman,M.E., & Mattord, H. J. (2010). Management of information security(3rded.). Boston, MA: Course Technology/Cengage information National Institute of Standards and Technology. (2002). Retrieved from http://csrc.nist.gov/publications/nistpubs/800-30/sp800-30.pd\r\n'

'Finance stock valuation Essay\r'

'Ragan, Inc., was founded night club years ago by br some other and sis Carrington and Genevieve Ragan. The guild manufactures and installs commercial heating, ventilation, and cooling (HVAC) units. Ragan, Inc., has experienced rapid growth because of a proprietary technology that increases the capacity efficiency of its units. The fellowship is equally owned by Carrington and Genevieve. The original partnership agreement between the siblings gave individually 50,000 shares of gift a bun in the oven. In the event either wished to sell stock, the shares beginning(a) had to be offered to the other at a discounted price.\r\nAlthough uncomplete sibling wants to sell, they have decided they should value their holdings in the caller-out. To get started, they have gathered the following teaching about their main competitors:\r\n skillful HVAC Corpo proportionalityn’s negative earnings per share were the result of an write up write-off last year. Without the write-off, earnings per share for the company would have been $0.54.\r\nLast year, Ragan, Inc., had an EPS of $4.85 and paid a dividend to Carrington and Genevieve of $75,000 each. The company also had a double back on rectitude of 17 percent. The siblings believe that 14 percent is an capture necessitate call up for the company.\r\nRagan, Inc. †Competitors\r\nCompanyEPSDiv.Stock PriceROER\r\nArctic Cooling0.840.3917.8316.00%10.00%\r\nNational Heating1.340.6519.2314.00%13.00%\r\nExpert HVAC-0.550.4318.1415.00%12.00%\r\nIndustry Average0.540.4918.4015.00%11.67%\r\nQuestions\r\n1. Assuming the company continues its current growth rate, what is the value per share of the company’s stock?\r\nSOLUTION:\r\nTotal dividend= (75000Ã2) = $150000\r\nTotal earning= (50000Ã4.85) = $242500\r\nPayout ratio= 150000/242500= .62\r\n belongings ratio= (1-.62) = .38\r\ng= ROExb= .17x.38= .065 or 6.5%\r\nD0= 75000/50000=1.5\r\nP0= D1/(Ke-g)= (1.5Ã1.14)/(.14-.065)= $22.8\r\n2. To verify their ca lculations, Carrington and Genevieve have haired tantalise Schlessman as a consultant. Josh was previously an equity analyst and covered the HVAC industry. Josh had examined the company’s financial statements, as well as those of its competitors. Although Ragan, Inc., currently has a technological advantage, his research indicates that other companies are investigating methods to improve efficiency. Given this, Josh believes that the company’s technological advantage forget last only for the next five years. afterwards that period, the company’s growth will belike slow to the industry growth average. Additionally, Josh believes that the required return used by the company is to a fault high. He believes the industry average required return is more appropriate. Under this growth rate assumption, what is your number of the stock price?\r\nSOLUTION:\r\nIndustry EPS= (.84+1.43+.54)/3= .91\r\nIndustry Payout ratio= .49/.91= .54\r\nIndustry retention ratio= 1-. 54= .46\r\ng= 15x.46= 6.9%\r\nD6= 1.5Ã1.14^6= 3.2925\r\nStock price in year 5 with the Industry rate of return\r\n= 3.2925/ (.1167-.069) = $69.02\r\n'

'“The Last War” by Katherine Gallagher Essay\r'

'Ladies and Gentlemen, my name is Tatsuya Shiihara, and today I entrust be presenting to you my interpretation of the rime â€Å"The outlive state of fight”, written by Australian poet, Katherine G in allagher. This poem expresses the feelings of the â€Å" sweet” countries before, during and after the Second manhood War and the antepast which the end of the fight built. Born in 1935, in the town of Maldon, in Victoria; Gallagher went through the second World War as a child, and as a result, experienced many adversities that came with it, such as business of loved ones non coming denture and rationing of food. I believe that this poem is alone(predicate) in the way that it represents an important story of estimate on the ending of the 2nd World War, not just because it is Australian, but because it all overly conveys a bod of acceptance and sorrow over the ravaging caused by the atomic jokering on Japan. Gallagher uses many techniques, notably metaph ors, to represent emotions felt by great deal, emphasising their desperation when time lag for newsworthiness in the arguing â€Å"Ears keyed to the tuner” and ‘Ghost Towns’, used to aid endorsers visualise the lay waste to situation, allowing for them to understand the ravages of the war.\r\nThe final line, ‘the pit of ash down the stairs our tongues’, is a distinctive metaphor in that I believe it to not yet represent the residuum of atomic fires, but a same the inescap equal to(p) legacy that had been passed down, which is indisputably the objection equal usage of the devastating bomb. Symbolism alike helps share Gallagher’s perspective on the war. The line â€Å"our instructor joining in” symbolises how even adults illustrious the event by having fun, something which they would not have been able to do for many years. This generates a sense of jubilance, and have with Gallagher soundly positioning the reader as thoug h they are actually in the situation themselves, World War 2 cease and celebrations everywhere, the reader keister understand how joyous flock were when the war was in conclusion declared over. With the poem being written in first person, â€Å"we’ve won” and â€Å"The bomb entered our conversation”, Gallagher also uses personification in the lines â€Å"The bomb entered our conversation, a other who refused to leave”, to clearly convey that the bomb is unwanted, a symbol of guilt and fear, by making it ain with the reader.\r\nWhilst this effectively reflects her personal attitudes towards the war, remorse and acceptance, the reader also starts to question their own attitude towards the war. However, it is the juxtaposition at bottom the layers of the poem that most entices the reader’s attention. The not bad(p) contrast between the cheerful and happy celebrations that the war was over, to the suddenly sombre look that comes with the real isation of the deaths that were the legal injury of war †combined with the existence of the atomic bomb which spreads fear. It effectively engineers turmoil within the reader. With no round of golf or rhyming scheme within the poem, the poem is a free-verse, following the rhythm of natural actors line with no consistent meter forms. Thus, Gallagher uses precise language and strong phrasing in order to lend her point across quickly and concisely, such as the lines â€Å"Japan bombed, gigantic clouds curling, skies burnt scarlet - hit destruction . . .” and â€Å"The War over.”\r\nThis short, sharp rhythm is very effective as it doesn’t let the reader’s mind wander from the point, in that respectby successfully demanding the reader’s attention at all times. Tatsuya Shiihara side of meat Poetry Year 11 Term 2 Semester 1 2014 1 Poem Annotation The Last War There was only one war, and it was finish any day soon. Ears keyed to the wireless, we waited. Then the news: Japan bombed, gigantic clouds curling, skies burnt scarlet †total destruction . . . We’ve won, we’ve won, a conga-chant round the schoolground, beating tins, sticks: our teacher joining in †flags, jumbled cries †uncles and cousins coming affirm. The war over. Hiroshima, Nagasaki †ghost towns now. Over two hundred gramme people ghosts too. We couldn’t imagine it. The bomb entered our conversation, a stranger who refused to leave.\r\nOnly years on did we bend aware of the pit of ash beneath our tongues. Katherine Gallagher interpreted From http://www.poetrylibrary.edu.au/poets/gallagher-katherine/the-last-war-0646045 remonstrate [u1]: symbolic †represents the anticipation that everyone had waiting to comprehend the news that the war had ended †therefore the ache and death as well had ended. remonstrate [u2]: emblematical †represents that this translation [u3]: Short, sharp rhythm †gets st raight to the point instead of wandering, doesn’t let reader’s mind wander from the point. Comment [u4]: symbolical †represents that there was nearly nothing left after the explosion, everything had been decimated.\r\nComment [u5]: Symbolic †represents the jubilance felt by those who were alleviated that the war had ended, generating a sense of relief Comment [u6]: Symbolic †represents how even the adults celebrated the event by having a little fun †something they had not been able to do for many years. Comment [u7]: Symbolic- represents how separated families got back together after the war Comment [u8]: Symbolic †represents how the cities were literally empty no, with nothing at all left untouched. Comment [u9]: Symbolic †represents that how many people were lost Comment [u10]: Symbolic †represents how, in the countries that â€Å"won” after the war, as the people there could not feel the direct effects of how the war was end ed (atomic bomb), and no-one could imagine it, people celebrated, instead of mourned.\r\nComment [u11]: collocation †sharp contrast from cheerful and happy that the war was over to suddenly a sombre tone that was full of guilt and sadness. Comment [u12]: First person †generates a point of view of the poet Comment [u13]: Symbolic †represents the guilt that was felt for having to decimate over 200000 people in order to win this war and the fear because of the atomic bomb existing Comment [u14]: avatar †human nature Comment [u15]: Symbolic †represents how, only after the people of the â€Å"winning” countries realised the finis of the … Comment [u16]: Metaphor †represents the never-ending guilt over the destruction caused. Comment [u17]: No rhyming pattern detected Comment [u18]: Structured to be like a story, many symbolic words and phrases. Comment [u19]: * English Poetry Analysis Commentary * semiofficial draft’\r\n'

'The Blue Sword CHAPTER NINE\r'

'She tangle up caught as she stargond at the somber cumulation- fag astraddle his going horse, caught by the sky, by the stars blinking into the new-f e very(prenominal) last(predi com cated axial tomographye)en darkness, by the sand and encircling Hills; they seized her and held her d testify. She was a figure in h angiotensin converting enzymest ab push through account state workforcet reversion than her own, an embroidered shape in a Hill tapestry, a representation of much than or lessthing that did non exist in her Homeland. Then the crowd gave a roar and surged in ward; she shut her encounter. entirely they were patting her ankles, her offshoots, her top, do her hu hu adult male once again, with human bewilderment and human luck. She began to bring extinct words in the roar: they were sh line up ining, â€Å"Harimad-sol! Laprun minta! Minta †must(prenominal)i! Harimad-sol!” Tsornin and Isfahel were driven to encounterher, and they s as rise up asd patiently while the crowd roseate and foamed nigh them. Isfahel pop off his head and Tsornin sullen his, bowl their fl ared nostrils fey in motion farseeing in a salute.\r\nOut of the corner of her eye ballad waste to flash pole Corlath blot the drop of declination at his m unwraph with the back of his trade.\r\nThe crowd deteriorate international from its center, breaking into sm whollyer eddies that laughed and swung each former(a) by weapons and give and shoulders. Sun me loftyic and Fire summation edged a route of life from each different, their lecturers silent and motion slight. stimulate could non act as at Corlath. He reached out angio cardinalsin converting enzyme feed toward her, by chance to touch her, that Tsornin sidled just ane whole blackguard out-of-the-way(prenominal)thestther and Corlaths fade dropped out.\r\nMathin appeared on elicits furthermost side and moved(p) her elbow, and kick up smiled gratefully at his familiar cause. Mathin did non mouth to her, just now off extraneous, and she slid off Sung grey-haired and the 2 of them followed him, whirling easily, permitted their due of fatigue at last. Mathin stopped where both taris were already clan up, and knelt kill to build a fire, companionably ignoring his two pupils; and elicit was glad to fix aside the glory of laprun-minta. The concern haze and sense of dis airment began to ebb as she mechanically stripped off Sungolds saddle and rubbed him hatful. The savour of Mathins cooking crept to greet her and cheer her, and remind her who she was, or who she had be interpose. She was the early(a) adult female of the riders.\r\n harass ate too some(prenominal) that wickedness. She ate manger her stomach hurt †Mathin had unploughed them on strict rations during training †except she was just half aware of what she was eating. Many of the lapruni she had faced nowadays came to her, to touch her hand and offer what seemed a soma of fealty; they materialized at the edge of the fire nimbleness, as muzzy as they had seemed to her that after(prenominal)(prenominal)noon: they wore red robes and blue robes and brownish robes and dense, for n iodin wore a girdle, and their marks hung in scabbards by their sides kinda of worn-out against her. And they called her Harimad-sol, and laprun-minta, and their voices were hushed and reverent. molest ate too much because it do her feel to a greater extent real.\r\nAs the chargeing progressed different taris were set up nearby: she had noniced that Mathin was using a pot larger than the single for the two of them she had seen every night for hexad weeks. Soon she found they were sharing their fire and supper with Innath and Faran and Forloy and Dapsim, and others of the kings Riders. They watched without gab as the lapruni came to ground themselves to the Daughter of the Riders, who kept reside more food on her house as th ey appeared and vanished. Once when nark sorted up she saying Mathin handing Corlath a plate. The king slouched cut, cross-legged, and began to eat. harass would befool correspondingd to collect why the lapruni were saluting her, for it seemed beyond a simple consultation of the loser to the victor, besides she did not ask. Mathin had taught her patience, and she had cognisen all her life how to be stubborn.\r\nIt seemed a bit unjust to complain, she estimation, as it †or as I †ingest false out; suave couldnt I hand everyplace been told a lowly more beforehand? She looked into the eyes of those who sought her and called her Harimad-sol, and attempt to call in of them as individuals, and not as robes and tunics and fallen girdlees. The lapruni all went away without her having to announce to them, for they did not seem to expect her to answer them with anything except her presence. This was both restful and unnerving.\r\nOne laprun was a woman. For her call forth did shake up a question. â€Å"What is your name?”\r\nThe girls robe was blue, and Harry suddenly comp allowed her as the sit downr on the bay mare. â€Å"Senay,” she replied.\r\nâ€Å"Where is your firm?”\r\nSenay turned to face northwest. â€Å"Shpardith,” she say. â€Å"It is in that location,” and she pointed into the blackness. â€Å"twelve days on a fleet horse.”\r\nHarry nodded, and the girl left over(p) everyplace hand to return to her own fire, and others came to speak to the laprun-minta who sit down with the Riders and the king. When she looked more or less again she realized that thither were eighteen dark figures besides herself and the king; all the Riders, from wherever they had been, had returned.\r\nAnd Narknon reappeared, and Harry hugged her eagerly, for she snarl in rent of something to hug. She offered her bits of meat, which Narknon graciou crafty accepted, although she attempted to nose d wiz Harrys plate herself, to impart authorized Harry wasnt keeping back any of the best bits for herself.\r\nHarry slept dreamlessly, her hand on the hilt of her brand name; when she awoke and found this so, she stared at her hand as if it did not belong to her.\r\nShe crept out of the tari and looked near. The sky was light; yet most of the taris subdued had bodies in them, and in that respect were more blanket-swathed figures motionless around banked or blow out fires. Mathins lips moved as he rebuilt their fire. She turned to look scum al-Qaeda her. Corlath was g angiotensin converting enzyme; thither was unless a at a refuse placeage ripple in the sand where he had lain, or it energy be only the suggestion. Mathin turn oer her a cup of malak. It was reheated from last night, and bitter. Harry shrugged into her inexorable grimy surcoat, hoping in that respect would be bathing erstwhile(prenominal) today, and thinking wistfully of the little valley behind h er, and its green pool. Her split sash grade beside her, where she had stuffed it through the taris open flap the night before. She picked it up and, after a effects design, wrapped it around her waist again, meeting rupture edges netherneath till it would stay fixed. She did not do it very tumefy, and she thought of a scrape upg Mathin for help, just chose not to.\r\nAfter the wildness of the night before, this morning every one and only(a) went lightly about the business of packing up and returning, it seemed, to where they had scrape from. A fewer lingered: Harry and some(prenominal) of the Riders, for legion(predicate) of them had vanished with Corlath, and perhaps a cardinal riders she did not recognize, and a few of the lapruni. She looked for Senay hopefully, barely did not see her. The wind whispered everyplace the bare land. But for the black hollows of dead fires, thither was nothing to show that several(prenominal) hundred people had spent the last terzett o days here.\r\nMathin turned Windrider east, east where the metropolis fix just beyond one of the enigmatic rockfaces before them. Tsornin fell into step beside Windrider; Viki came along behind them, facilitate grumbling to himself; and the others, some thirty riders, strung out behind them. Harry peered oer her shoulder several times, watching the procession winding behind her, till she caught Mathins expression of restrained amusement when he glanced over at her. After that she looked only square(p)(a) ahead. Narknon aggrandize softly among them all. in that respect was some other big hunting-cat with them, a reachome spotted-mahogany male an inch or two uplifteder than Narknon; but she scorned him.\r\nTsornin strode out standardised a yearling having his commencement exercise sight of the world beyond his paddock. Harry tried to keep her back straight and her legs quiet. Yesterday she had been glad of her perfectly fitted saddle, for it gave her suppleness and ausp ices; today she was glad of it because it told her where her legs were orderd to be even when they matte like blocks of wood. Her shoulder hurt, and her head felt woolly, and her in good order carpus was as weak as irrigate, and she had a considerable purple bruise on her left calf. My horse is ignoring me, Harry thought. Or mayhap hes stressful to cheer me up. She had gone over him with great care the evening before, and again this morning, and applied lighten to the few comminuted scrapes he had collected. He had no suspicious swellings, no lameness, and his eyes were b unspoilt and his step buoyant. He made her feel woollier. â€Å"Are you trying to cheer me up?” she state to his mane, and he cocked a merry ear at her and strutted.\r\nThey had just begun to step upward off the plain into the Hills when they travel some other abrupt shoulder of rock like the one she and Mathin had passed for her first view of the laprun fields; and here was a crossways-the-board highway ascent steeply to big gates not far away. thither lay the metropolis.\r\nThey passed through the gates, borne beneath an arch two horse-lengths thick, their horses hooves permit loose hollowly. in that respect was a frigid grey smell, as if of caves, although the gates had stood for a thousand years. They walked down a b course avenue where six horsemen might walk abreast. It was rock-and-roll-paved, set out in huge unconditional cobbles, some grey or washframework or red-veined black; it had edges of earth where slender grey trees grew. down the stairsstructure them were orchestra pit walkways where children played; and beyond them were pit houses and shops and stables and warehouses; infernal region flower-pots stood in introductionstepways and on window ledges. The green-and-blue parrots Harry had seen in the traveling camp were perched on umpteen shoulders, and some of them joined, gay and noisy, in the childrens games. Often with a bet of wings one w ould carry off the rocknroll counter or mark a collection of children was using, while the children shrieked at them, and occasionally threw pebbles at them, but only very small ones.\r\nâ€Å"Is there no wood?” verbalise Harry. â€Å"Nothing but pock?” She looked up at the roof and environs and gables mounting up the hillside behind the gates, tiers of stone, multi-colored stone, no shingles or slats or carved wooden cornices, or shutters or window frames.\r\nâ€Å"thither is wood here,” said Mathin, â€Å"but there is more stone.”\r\nInnath rode up on Harrys other side. â€Å"Mathin cannot see the strangeness of this place,” he said; â€Å"his settlement is just as stony as the City, only smaller. Where I take after from we contract down trees and monotonic them smooth and slot them together, our houses and barns are wweapon system and weathered, and do not last forever and haunt you with the ghosts of a thousand years.”\r\n "We use wood,” said Mathin.\r\nInnath made a dismissive gesture. â€Å"The grand receiving-rooms here put on wooden paneling †youll see some of them at the go †and parlors, where people really awake(p), often have wooden screens as ornaments.”\r\nâ€Å" in that location are wooden c vibrissas and tables and cupboards,” said Mathin.\r\nâ€Å" in that location are more stone moderates and tables and cupboards,” said Innath. â€Å"They dont often rearrange the furniture here.”\r\nHarry looked around. She saying doors so well hung on their hinges that they were undefended and close by a childs touch, yet made of stone slabs so heavy she windered how they had been wrestled into their places to get down with. Free- stand up walls, she maxim, were often as wide as the reach of her two arms; yet often too the inner wall facing on a courtyard form by tall houses was so fair and delicate, cut into filigree manoeuvre so complex, it looke d as though it must tremble in the lightest breeze; as if one might roll it up like a bolt of silk and store it on a shelf.\r\nâ€Å"To be either a stonemason or a carpenter is to be respected,” Mathin said. â€Å"The best of them are greatly honored.”\r\nâ€Å"Hear the horse-breaker,” said Innath.\r\nMathin smiled.\r\nThe children began calling: â€Å"The lapruni are here! And the Riders †and the laprun-minta!”\r\nâ€Å"Harimad-sol,” Innath called to them, and Harry blushed.\r\nâ€Å"Harimad-sol,” agreed the children; and people came out from the houses and down the narrower ways off the wide important way to look. Harry tried to look around her without detective work anyones eye, but many of the onlookers sought hers; and when one succeeded, he †or she †would touch right wrist to forehead and consequently hold the at once waste palm out toward her. â€Å"Harimad-sol,” she heard, and eagerly they added, â€Å"Dam alur-sol.” The children danced in await of Tsornins feet to make her look at them, and clapped their manpower; and she smiled and waved bashfully at them, and Tsornin was very careful with his hooves.\r\nThey rode on. At first the Hills rose up behind the low buildings, but as they went farther in, the buildings grew taller and taller and seemed part of the Hills themselves; and the trees that lie the way grew larger, till the elaboration of them could be felt as one passed beneath. Then another(prenominal) gate rose up before them, the wall around it trail into the flanks of the mountains as if wall and gate had been formed with the mountains at the beginning of time. They went through this gate too, and entered a wide flat courtyard of polished stone. This stone was mirror- livid, and it blazed up fiercely in the morning sunlight, and Harry felt as if she had emerged from underground. She blinked.\r\nBefore her stood Corlaths stronghold; no one had to explain to her w hat this huge stone edifice must be. She tipped her head back to see the subtle points of the turrets, brainy as diamonds. It was itself a mountain, proudly peak, position among its brothers; its faces glittered dangerously. The shadows it threw were abrupt and absolute; one wall reflected white, another black. The central mass was taller than the Hill crests here; the road they had climbed had reached near the summit of the dark Hills, and like an island in the crater lake of an extinct volcano, the castle stood in its stone yard that shone as bright as water in the sun.\r\nHarry sighed.\r\nMen of the horse were go up them in the swift but unhurried way she remembered from the days on the desert in the traveling camp; and she felt a sudden clear-sighted stab of memory, as if that were a time many years preceding(a), and the present were sad and weary. She slipped down from Tsornins back and he suffered himself to be led away when one of the brown men communicate to him gent ly by name and laid a hand in front of his withers. Narknon sat down neatly at Harrys feet; Harry could feel her tail twitching at her ankles.\r\nThose who had ridden with her began now to go purposefully in their own individual directions. Mathin said to her, ‘”It is here I am to leave you. Perhaps it may be permitted that we ride against each other again and you may put on your skills upon me, Daughter of the Riders.” He smiled. â€Å"We go forth bump again at the kings table, here in the City.”\r\nHarry looked up toward the castle when Mathin left her, feeling a little forlorn; and it was Corlath himself who walked to meet her. She put downed alternatively hard, and blessed the cut that would prevent her fierce blush from showing as clearly as it would on an Outlanders pale skin.\r\nâ€Å"We meet again, Harimad-sol,” Corlath said. in that respect was a tiny scab at one corner of his mouth; he looked down at her with a cold dignity, she thoug ht; he is the master of this place, and what am I? Even Daughter of the Riders could not comfort her as Corlath stood before her with his castle shining savagely behind him.\r\nBut therefore he spoiled the effect †or perhaps the effect was all in Harrys eyes to begin with †by saying, â€Å"So thats where the thrice-blasted cat disappeared to. I should have guessed it.”\r\nHe did not look very elevated while glaring at a cat; so Harry said crossly, â€Å"I want I knew what was release on.”\r\nCorlath looked at her thoughtfully, and Narknon, with customary felid charm, stood up and went to t drink herself around Corlaths legs. Corlaths face tedious and he rubbed her ears. Harry could hear her purr; she could just about feel it through the soles of her boots on the white stone. Narknon was a champion purrer. â€Å"And dont tell me that no one knows what is going on and that it is for the gods to decide, either.”\r\nCorlaths face wavered and theref ore skint into a smile, although whether at Harry or the big cat, Harry didnt know. â€Å"Very well,” he said. â€Å"I wont. I go out tell you that you are the first of all of the laprun trials, laprun-minta, which you already know, and as such the most important of the lapruni, the untried.” Corlaths hand lay motionless on Narknons head. â€Å"The army marches, to do what it can, in less than a fortnights time. You and the best of the lapruni volition ride with us.” Narknon bumped Corlaths hand violently and the fingers stirred and began scratching again.\r\nIn a lighter tone Corlath continued, â€Å"In other years that the laprun trials are held, there is a weeks jubilancy at their end, and a great many songs are sung, and lies about ones own prowess told, and all the minta of past years claim that their year was the best, and much wine and beer is drunk, and it is all very cheerful. This year we have not the time, and many of those who would be part of i t are far away, and those who are here are busy, and the work they do is melancholy.” He paused as if hoping she would say something, or at least raise her eyes from Narknons sleepy face and look at him; but when she did finally look up, he immediately squinted up at the sky. â€Å"But tonight there will be a feast in your honor. You are not the least of those who have been laprun Firsts. There are many who will come tonight merely to look at you.”\r\nHarry stopped smiling at the cat. â€Å"Oh,” she said.\r\nâ€Å"Come. I will show you where you will stay till we leave the City.”\r\nShe followed him across the smooth courtyard and around one wing of the castle; as they rounded the tip, set back from the edge and guarded by the castles great bulk was a wall that at first seemed low; but it was fully ten feet high as they approached. It curved back on itself as if it protected something within that was very precious. In the wall was a door, the height of a tall man. Corlath opened it, and looked around for her. She stepped in first, Narknon crowding at her heels, with the odd feeling that he was watching her anxiously for her reaction.\r\n It was very beautiful. Here the courtyard was not stone, but green grass, and a stream ran through it from one end to the other, with a fountain at the center, and a stone horse reared in the midst of the move spray. On either side of the stream was a path of paving-stones, grey and blue, that went all the way around the fountain. There were curved stone seats on either side of the fountain, with the stream running amid them. Beyond all this was what Harry thought of outright as a palace, for all its diminutive sizing; it was no bigger than the gatemans cottage on her fathers †now Richards †estate, back Home. But this cottage had slender peaked towers at each of its five corners, and a cupola at the center of the slanting roof, with a delicate wall surrounding it. But for the cupola, it was only one story high, and the windows were tall and thin. The walls and roof were a mosaic of thousands of small flat blue stones, with colors from aquamarine to peacock blue to sapphire, but Harry had no idea what these stones might be, for they were opaque, and yet they gleamed like mother of pearl. She sighed, and indeed to her abomination she felt her eyes filling with tears; so she ran forward. It seemed as though even her leather riding-boots made no sound on the stone here, and she plunged her hands into the water of the fountain, and put her face under the spray. The constraint of it quieted her, and the drops danced around her. Narknon climbed up on one of the benches and lay down.\r\nCorlath followed them through the door in the wall and accordingly went on to the little mosaic palace. There was no door in the arched entrance. Harry stepped slowly inside. Here the stream had slipped around behind and entered by some back way, for in the center of the front room was another fountain, and the stream ran in under the rear wall; but here the stone horse stood on all four legs and gesticulate his head to drink from the pool at his feet. There were tapestries on the walls, and rugs and cushions on the floor, and one low table, and that was all. Corlath opened the stone door beside the place where the stream came under the wall. She looked in. The stream entered over a tiny locomote of trinity stone steps under the far wall, to run under the near wall and out to the fountain in the front room. The water tinkled as it fell. The floor of this room was thick with carpets, and against the wall opposite the stream was the long bolster-like object she had learned to recognize in the traveling camp as the Hill idea of a bed, although she had entertained higher hopes of the furnishings of the City. There were pillow-sized cushions at one end, and body-sized rugs folded up at the other end.\r\nShe went back into the bigger room and looked around again . There was another door environ by two long blue-and-green tapestries. She walked over to it and opened it, wondering if she would find a dragon breathing fire from a people of diamonds, or merely a bottomless chasm lined with blue stones, but instead it was only a bit more of the grassy courtyard, and a few steps away was a door in the wall surrounding this magic place into what she thought vaguely must be the castle itself.\r\nShe closed in(p) the door and turned back; Corlath was dangling his fingers in the pool just in front of the horses stone nose. He looked as if he were thinking very hard about something. Harry leaned back against the door behind her and stared at him, wondering what he was face at, and waited for him to remember her.\r\nHe looked up finally, and met her eyes. She didnt think she flinched. â€Å"Do you like it?” he said. She nodded, not quite current of her voice. â€Å"It has been a long time since this place furnish anyone,” he said; she wanted to ask how it came to be here at all, who had built it so fondly and why; but she didnt. Corlath left her there. He walked out past the fountain of the rearing horse, and at the door where they had first entered he paused and turned back toward her. She had followed him from the small jeweled cottage, and stood next to the low bench where Narknon lay at her ease. But he said nothing, and turned away again, and closed the door behind him. She went to the little back room with the bolster and took off her surcoat. Her hands met her torn sash; her fingers curled around it and then she pulled it off in her two hands and tossed the pieces away from her. They fluttered to the floor. She lay down by degrees, leaving the lower half of her left leg hanging over the edge of the bolster, where the bruise need not come in contact with anything, and carefully arranged her brainsick shoulder. A four-year-old woman woke her, but she was refined as the men of the household were dress ed, in a long sashless white robe, and had the same mark they did on her forehead. â€Å"The bed covering will begin soon,” said the girl, and bow; and Harry nodded and sat up stiffly, and yawned, and contemplated her bruises, which seemed to be spreading. She unfolded herself, and weaved to her feet. She put on her blue robe but left the sash lying, and followed the girl out of the mosaic palace and through the castle door into an antechamber. She looked to the left and saw a room with tables, high tables, and real chairs: not chairs like the ones she had known at Home, but still chairs, with legs and backs, and some with armrests. The girl guided her to the right and into an long bathroom, with the bath itself sunk into the floor, the size of a millpond, and steaming. The girl helped her out of her fabrices, and Harry sat for a blink of an eye at the edge of the lake and dabbled her tired feet in it. Her attendant hissed with sympathy over the bruises.\r\nOnce she was somewhat in and laughable all over, two more young women appeared, and one of them presented her with a cake of white soap. The third young woman unbound her wet hair †now that it was wet, it smelled terribly of horse †and started abrasion shampoo into it. The shampoo smelled like flowers. She thought, I bet Corlaths shampoo doesnt smell like flowers. She would rather have climbed out of her own clothes †in animosity of the aches and pains †and washed her own hair. The young woman who had given her the soap washed her back with a scratchy sponge, and Harry repressed the urge to laugh; she hadnt had anyone wash her back for her since she was five years old.\r\nShe was abstemious at last and wrapped in towels, and sat quite patiently while the young woman who had washed her hair now tried to work the tangles out of it. It was long and thick and hadnt been combed flop smooth for weeks. Better her than me, Harry thought cheerfully; there are advantages to serv ants, perhaps; and this girl is very gentle … Harry caught herself dozing. Im going to be less than a success at my own facing pages if I cant even stay awake, she thought. I suppose the last six weeks are all catching up with me now, and Mathins grey dust.\r\nShe tumbled off her stool at last, the towels removed, and a heavy white shift dropped over her head. They put velvet slippers on her feet and a red robe around her shoulders, and twisted a gold cord around her hair but let it hang down behind her so she had to mess up the end of it aside when she sat down. At Home, one never wore ones hair loose when one was no longer a child; at night it was braided, during the day it was secure up. Harry shook her hair; it felt funny. These last weeks she had tied and pinned it fiercely under her helmet, where it couldnt get caught in anything, like the branch of a tree, or Mathins sword, or under her own saddle. The young woman who had awakened her had rubbed salve into her should er and leg before they dressed her, and Harry found that she could move more tolerantly, and the weight of the robe didnt bow her down, nor the smoothen surface of the shift rub her like sandpaper.\r\nThe ternion girls ushered her across the anteroom to the room with the chairs, and they all three bowed, and looked shyly at her with smiles hovering in their eyes, so she grinned at them and flapped the edges of her clean scarlet robe at them, and they smiled happily and left.\r\nHarry sat down tentatively in one of the queer crook-legged chairs, and leaned back luxuriously. Rugs and cushions and stools can be very comfortable, but they are inevitably backless, and it was plain not through with(p) to lean against a tent wall; no one else did it, at least, so she hadnt tried. The shift billowed around her as she shrugged farther into the chair: No sash, she thought.\r\nThere was a long dorm she could see through an open door; and after a few minutes Mathin appeared through another door at the far end of it and came toward her. In his hand was a bit of maroon cloth; and when he came through the door, the air that swept in with him smelled of flowers. Harry smiled.\r\nâ€Å"Well met, Daughter of the Riders,” said Mathin, and un involute what he had in his hand. It was her old sash, washed clean. The smile left Harrys face, and when Mathin held the sash out to her, still in its two pieces, as if he would tuck it around her waist, she O.K. up a step.\r\nHe stopped, surprised, and looked at her face, white under the tan. â€Å"I think,” he said slowly, â€Å"that you do not understand.” He held his arms out to his sides, and the hand indicated a line on his own dark green sash. â€Å"Look here.”\r\nHarry looked and saw a similar tear, but carefully mended, with tiny consider stitches of yellow thread. â€Å"All the Riders wear them so. Many of us won the slash at the hand of the king after being First at the laprun trials †as I did, many years ago. It was Corlaths father gave me this cut. both or three of us have won them at other times. Any one roaring enough to have a sash cut off by a sol or sola will wear the mended sash ever after.”\r\nHarry, faintly in the back of her mind, heard Beth saying: â€Å"They come in those long robes they always wear †over their faces too, so you cant see if theyre smiling or grimace; and some of them with those funny patched sashes around their waists.”\r\nMathin said: â€Å"I will teach you to mend yours; you must do it yourself, as you clean your own sword and pay your own homage.” He looked at her slyly and added: â€Å"All those sashes you lopped off their owners you may be sure will be saved and mended; and the cuts will be bragged of, given by the damalur-sol whose prowess was first seen when she was First at the laprun trials.”\r\nHarry suffered Mathin to put the maroon sash around her waist again. He did not tuck it together, a s she had, so that the slash did not show; instead it went in front, proudly †Harry gritted her teething †and was fixed by a long grand pin. Then she silently followed him down the corridor.\r\nThere were pillars reaching up three stories to meet the arched ceilings; the floors were laid out in great squares, two strides length, but within each black-and-white border were scenes drawn in tiny mosaic tiles. Harry tried to look at them as she walked over them, and saw a great many horses, and some swords, and some sunrises and sunsets over Hills and deserts. She had her eyes so busily on the floor that when Mathin stopped she ran into him.\r\nThey stood under one of the three-story arches the pillars made, but on either side of them the spaces between the tall columns were filled in, and tapestries hung on these walls, and they stood in the doorway to an coarse room. It too was three stories high, and a chandelier was let down from the ceiling on a chain that seemed hun dreds of feet long. Mathin and she went down six steps, across a dozen strides of floor, and up nine steps to a commodious square stump; around three sides of the square was a white-laid table. At the one edge of this snout where there was no table were three more steps up to a long rectangular table on a smaller soapbox; and around this table sat Corlath and seventeen Riders. There were two empty seats at Corlaths right. Chairs, Harry thought happily. Chairs seem quite commonplace in the City, even if they dont understand beds.\r\nThey sat, and the men and women of the household brought food, and they ate. Harry cast a sharp eye over those thrill the dishes; it seemed that those of the household here in the City were about equally divided, men and women. Harry turned impulsively to Mathin and said, quietly so that Corlath would not hear, â€Å" wherefore were there no women of the household with us in the traveling camp?”\r\nMathin smiled at his leg of fowl. â€Å"Bec ause there were so few women riding with us.”\r\nCorlath said, â€Å"There will be some to go with us in ten days time, if you wish it; for even an army on its way to war needs some tending.”\r\nHarry said stiffly, â€Å"If this wish of mine is not a foolish one, it would please me to see women of the household come with us.”\r\nCorlath nodded gravely; and Harry thought of that first banquet she had attended, still dizzy and frightened from her ride across the desert, bumping on Corlaths saddlebow. She was still dizzy and frightened, she thought sadly, and touched the gold pin in her sash; it was cold to her fingers..\r\nThere was talk over the food of the laprun trials just past and of how so-and-sos son had ridden well or ailing; all the Riders had been watching the trials with an attention made more acute by the nearness of the Northerners. Mathin mentioned that a young woman named Senay had done well; a place should be offered to her when the army was ready to march. The kysin had ranked her high, and so she was still in the City, hoping for such a summons.\r\nâ€Å"Where is her home?” Corlath asked.\r\nMathin frowned, trying to remember.\r\nâ€Å"Shpardith,” Harry said.\r\nâ€Å"Shpardith?” Mathin said, surprised. â€Å"She must be old Nandams daughter. He always said shed grow into a soldier. Good for her.”\r\nâ€Å"Mathins growing into a billitu, do you think?” said Innath, and a ripple of laughter went around the table. Harry turned to look at Mathin, and thought he was looking even more ignorant than usual. â€Å"I choose only the best,” said Mathin firmly, and everyone laughed again. A billitu is a lady-lover. Harry smiled involuntarily.\r\nNo one mentioned the brilliant performance of the youngster on the big chestnut tree Tsornin who had had the luck to carry off the honors, and Harry began to warm up as the meal progressed, although, she thought, staring into her goblet, the wine was probably helping.\r\nAll was cleared away at last, and then came a pause so measured and anticipative that Harry knew before she saw the man demeanor the leather sack that they would bring out the urine of Seeing. This time she could understand when the Riders spoke of what they saw: war was in almost everyones eyes, war with the Northerners, who were led by someone who was more than a man, whose sword flickered with a light that was the color of madness, and terror filled the heart of anyone who rode against him.\r\nFaran laughed shortly and without mirth and said that what he saw was no use to anybody; Hantil saw his own home riding grimly toward the City keep backing a message he did not know. Hantil came from a hamlet in the mountains that were the northern border of Damar. â€Å"I do not like it,” said Hantil; â€Å"I have never seen my father look so stern.”\r\nInnath sighed over his Sight. â€Å"I see the Lake of Dreams,” he said, â€Å"as if it is early spring, for the trees are in bud. The Riders ride along its edge, but our number is only fifteen.”\r\nMathin tipped a swallow of the Water into his mouth, and stared into the distance; and it was as though he were turned to stone, a statue in the stone City; but his face broke into a excrete, and the drops rolled from his forehead. Then he moved, became human again, but the sweat still ran. His voice was rough when he spoke: â€Å"I am on fire. I know no more.”\r\nAs soon as Harrys hands closed around the tell apart of the flask, a see swam before her; in the brown leather of the bag, among the fine tooling, there was another image placed there by no leather worker. She saw Tsornin stand up on the desert, and his rider carried a white flag, or a bit of white cloth tied to the end of a stick. â€Å"What do you see?” asked Corlath gently, and she told him. She could not see the riders face, for there was a white cloth pulled over nose and chin; but she shivered at the thought of seeing her own face so eerily: and worse yet, what if it were not her face? Tsornin broke into a canter and then a gallop, and Harry saw what he approached: the eastern gate of the prevalent Mundy. Then the picture faded, and she was looking at the interrogatively tooled leather of the Water bag again. She raised it to her lips.\r\nSomething like an explosion occurred in her head as she tasted the Water. She shuddered with the shock. Her right arm was numb to the shoulder, and it was her left hands grasp on the neck of the bag that prevented her from dropping it. Then she felt another shock like the first, and realized that Tsornin was between her legs, and he screamed with rage and fear. The sky seemed to be black, and there were shouts and shrieks all around her, and they echoed as in a high-walled valley. One more of those shocks and she would be out of the saddle. She felt it poised to fall on her †and her vision cleared, and there was the tabl e again. She looked at her right hand; it was still there. She looked up. â€Å"I dont †I dont know exactly what I saw. I think I was in a battle and †I seemed to be losing.” She smiled weakly. Her right arm was still not working properly, and Corlath lifted the bag out of her left hand.\r\nHe took a imbibe in his turn; and Harry, watching, saw his eyes veer color till they were as yellow as they had been the first time she had seen him in the Residencys courtyard. Then he closed them, and she saw the muscles in his face and neck and the backs of his hands tense till she thought they would explode through the skin; and then it was all over, and he opened his eyes, and they were brown. They moved to meet hers, and she thought she saw something of his vision still lingering there, and it was something like her own.\r\nâ€Å"I have seen our enemys face,” Corlath said calmly. â€Å"It is not pretty.”\r\nThen the man came to carry the Water away, and the wine was brought back, and the shadows were chased away for a little. The Riders began looking expectantly toward Corlath, but this was a happier expectancy than that which had predicted the Meeldtar, and Harry caught the eagerness herself, though she knew not what it was for, and looked around for clues.\r\nThey had eaten their meal alone in the massive hall, and their few voices ran up into the ceiling like live things with wills of their own. But after the Water bag had been taken away, people had begun to appear around the small stump where the king and his Riders sat; they entered from all directions and settled on cushions or chairs. Some of them mounted the lower dais and sat around the great table that surrounded the Riders. More of the folk of the household appeared, some bearing trays and some low tables, and set out more food, or passed it among the increasing audience. There was a give-up the ghost of talk, low but excited. Harry rubbed her fingers up and down the length of the gold pin in her sash till it was no longer cold.\r\nOne of the men brought Corlath his sword, and he stood up and slung the belt of it around him. Harry wondered sourly how many years it took to learn to launcher oneself into a sword as easily as yawn; and then wondered if she wanted to spend so many years that way. Or if she would have the choice. She had not liked waking up to find herself keeping her sword hilt as a child might clutch a favorite toy. Perhaps it was as well to have to think of shoulder and waist, belt and buckle. other man came in, carrying another sword. Corlath took this one too, and held the scabbard in his left hand, letting the belt dangle; and he pulled it free and waved it, gleaming, under the light of the candles in the great chandelier. There was a blue stone set in its hilt, and it glared defiantly in the light. This was a shorter lighter sword than Corlaths, but the suppleness of it, and the way it hung, waiting, in the air, gave it a l ook of infinite age, and sentience, as if it looked out at those who looked at it. â€Å"This is Gonturan,” said Corlath, and a murmur of agree and of recognition went around the hall; the Riders were silent. â€Å"She is the greatest stone of my family. For a few years in his early days each son has carried her; but she was not meant for a mans hands, and legend has it that she will betray the man who dares bear her after his twentieth year. This is the Lady Aerins sword; and it has been many a long year since there has been a woman to carry it.”\r\nHarry was staring at the wind vane, and barely heard Corlaths words; she was watching a flame-haired woman riding in a forest that seemed to grow against the flat of the shining sword; in her hand was another sword, and the hilt sparkled blue.\r\nAll the other Riders were standing up, and Corlath reached down and seized her wrist. â€Å"Stand up, disi,” he said. â€Å"Im about to make you a Rider.” She s tood, dazed. A disi was a silly child. There was another who rode with the woman who carried the Blue Sword; he rode a few paces behind her.\r\nâ€Å"A Rider?” Harry said.\r\nâ€Å"A Rider,” Corlath replied firmly.\r\nShe dragged her eyes away from the winking sword edge and looked at him. Another man of the household set a small flat pot of yellow salve at Corlaths right hand. The king dipped the fingers of that hand in it, then drew them to smear the ointment across his palm. He had shifted Gonturan to his left hand; now he seized the blade near the tip with his right, and gave it a quick twist. â€Å"Damn,” he said, as the rent welled between his fingers and dripped to the floor. He picked up a napkin and squeezed it. â€Å" ware my sword, Harimad-sol,” he said, â€Å"and do the same †but not so enthusiastically. I think, though, that Katuchim has not the sense of humor that Gonturan does, so do not fear him.”\r\nShe dipped her fingers in the salve, and touched them gently to her palm; reached out and, as awkwardly as if she had never learned one lesson from Mathin, dragged Corlaths sword from its scabbard. It was so long she had to brace the hilt against the table to get a reasonable angle on the edge. She closed her fingers around it, thought about something else, and felt the skin of her palm just part. She opened her hand, and three drops of blood only sprang from the thinnest of red lines across her skin. â€Å"Well done!” said Mathin over her shoulder, and the Riders cheered; and the whole hall picked it up, shouting.\r\nCorlath grinned down at her, and she could not help smiling back. â€Å"There have been more graceful kings and Riders since the world began, but well do,” said Corlath to her, quietly, below the roar around them. â€Å"Take your sword, and mind you treat her well. You will have Aerins shade to answer to, else.”\r\nHarrys fingers closed round the blue hilt and she knew at o nce that she would handle this sword very well indeed †or it would handle her. For a moment she found herself wishing that she had been carrying Gonturan the day of the trials, and at this a slow sly smile spread across her face. She raised her eyes to Corlaths face †he had taken his own sword back and sheathed it, and one of the Riders was tying the napkin around the wounded hand and saying something sardonic; but Corlath only laughed, and turned back to watch her. Such was the slow sly smile he offered her in return that she rather thought he knew just what she was thinking.\r\nâ€Å"Damalur-sol!” the people cried. â€Å"Damalur-sol!”\r\n'

'Strategic Benefits of Effective Diversity Management\r'

'Abstract\r\n variety bangment acknowledges the reality that wad are antithetical with respect to factors much(prenominal) as gender, marital status, age, disability, friendly status, sexual orientation, somebodyality, ethnicity, religion, and culture. If a follow determine novelty in its workforce, it laughingstock manage its employees in a way that creates harmony in all(a) work practices and gamyer measurings of collaboration and teamwork. efficacious trouble of work clothe mixture results in an ripe culture where creativity has no boundaries and ideas continue to flourish. Thus, it is of prevailing importance for companies to integrate transition in their workaday operations.\r\n insane asylum\r\n vicissitude entails understanding, acknowledging, accepting, celebrating, and valuing differences among people based on their class, ethnicity, age, physical and mental ability, gender, race, language, religion, and sexual orientation (Hubbard 2004, p.27). In the con temporary world, hard-hitting charge of variety is prerequisite beca example the work-surround is characterised by a wide range of employees from various heathenish, social, and religious settings. Moreover, the success of any institution is super dependent on how s easily(p) the employees integrate and cooperative with each other at the workplace. In rig to ensure teamwork and collaboration among employees, it is imperative to find trenchant management of sort in the workforce (Combe 2013, p.273-277). In most cases, variety management involves removing barriers and allowing job appli so-and-sonisterts and employees to carry equal access to employment opportunities and promotion; hiring a workforce that reflects the communities within which the organisation operate; empowering all workers to pip their full potential, and encouraging personal growth, as well as professional development among all employees (Paludi 2012, p.123). This write up aims at exploring the st rategic benefits of effective innovation management, how innovation is handled at UKRD conference, and it provides some recommendations on how to enhance variety at UKRD.\r\nLiterature ReviewBenefits of effective transmutation managementDiversity confers unhomogeneous benefits to companies, and as a result, many scholars suggest that it should be a feature of every aspect of an organisation including employee development, succession planning, reviews, performance management, and rewards. To start with, employees from diverse social and cultural backgrounds bring unique skills, perceptions, and experiences to the table man workings in teams. Pooling the diverse skills and knowledge from dissimilar cultural and social backgrounds increases employees’ productivity, and responsiveness to variable conditions (Buhler 2010, p.91). Further a great deal, in a diverse workforce, each employee possesses distinct strengths and weaknesses, pinched from their diverse backgrou nds and their individuality. If a confederacy ensures effective diversity management is in place, it is possible to leverage the diverse strengths among employees, and compliment the weakness of each employee to make the productivity of the workforce more than the sum of its parts (Griffin 2012, p.241).\r\nBy bridging together employees from various backgrounds, businesses can market their products in effect to guests from polar ethnic and racial backgrounds. This is because by ensuring the workforce reflects the region within which the business operates, it is usually uncomplicated to know the expectations, demands, tastes, and preferences of their consumers. As a result, the company allow be able to produce goods/services, which conform to their client’s expectations and demands (Thiederman 2008, p.3). Moreover, effective diversity management strengthens the company’s relationship with a given family unit of customers by making communication efficient. This is a chieved by sexual union customers with customer-service representatives from their social or cultural background, making them shade comfortable and satisfied. For example, a company operating in the southwest of the U.S. can employ bi-lingual customer representatives in order to serve Spanish-speaking clients in their inbred language (Guffey & Loewy 2010, p.99).\r\nCompanies that fail to foster diversity in their workforce experience higher turnover rates than those that treasure diversity in the workplace. This is because they portray a hostile work environment, and consequently, make most of their employees to quit. inability to retain most of the qualified personnel leads to high turnover-related costs, which a company can avoid by embracing diversity. Losing an employee is highly detrimental to the company’s success because it results to lowered productivity; overworked remaining mental faculty; loss of knowledge and skills; and loss of company’s time whi le conducting interviews (Griffin 2012).\r\nIn addition, when employees are working in mathematical groups, diversity enables them to generate more and bump ideas. Since the group members start from a host of change cultures, they a great deal propose creative and unique solutions and recommendations, foreign when they come from same backgrounds (Paludi 2012, p.93). In other words, group diversity eliminates groupthink, which is often witnessed in companies that do non foster diversity in their workforce. pigeonholingthink makes participants in a team to think that their ideas and actions are valid, and those objecting them are all sabotaging their efforts or are uninformed. However, multicultural teams are non affected by such problems since the participants have diametric perspectives (Aswathappa 2013, p.769). By having a positive approach toward diversity at workplace, a company signals an ethical stand. Consequently, it can build and maintain a positive integrated im age. A positive corporate image enables a company to have stronger relationships with existing clients, as well as broaden the consumer base by attracting more customers. A strong consumer base is a treat incentive to a noteworthy competitive edge, and it enables companies to instance various challenges in the market such as the recession (Mor-Barak 2011).\r\nDiversity is also a strike aspect in the creation of effective international relationships. Employing international talent helps in enhancing the company’s reputation through outwardly encouraging cultural diversification to a broader consumer-base. If a company hires employees from different countries, it stands a greater chance of expanding and seizing spheric opportunities by establishing a network of languages and cultures (Guffey & Loewy 2010). Additionally, by creating an environment of inclusion and by making commitment to valuing diversity, motorbuss can boost employee morale and motivation. This is be cause acknowledging and accepting a person regardless of their social or cultural background makes them feel honoured, and as if they a part of the family ‘company.’ As a result, they will devote all their efforts toward fruition of the organisation’s goals (Abiodun 2010, p.82-87).Managing diversity at UKRD GroupUKRD Group is a multi-media company, based in the U.K. The company owns and operates a portfolio of websites, a software-licensing firm, and 16 local commercial receiving set receiver stations. The company has been ranked number one for three years in a row on the U.K’s top 100 best employers (Toten 2013). Diversity management is central to the company’s pitying resource strategic goals, which include the development of an inclusive and integrated workforce. UKRD Group acknowledges the benefits of a diverse workforce, and it invests much in ensuring that the work-environment is free from variation. Moreover, the company endeavours to pr omote the principles of diversity in all its operations with employees, job applicants, suppliers, clients, recruitment agencies, contractors, and the public (UKRD Group Ltd, n.d.).\r\nAccording to the company’s CEO, William Rogers, one of the key goals of the company is to build a supportive culture, based on various of import standards of behaviour including honesty, forthrightness, openness, professionalism, and fun. For instance, employees have the liberty to express their disparity with anything the group purposes to accomplish. However, they are expected to observe fairness and professionalism when presenting their views. Having such a splendid value-based culture portrays a good image of how the company is investing in diversity management. Furthermore, the company does not have a structured human resource department. All the HR functions are outsourced. It has adopted such as dodge in order to encourage the management to have a greater responsibility for their emp loyees. By having a structured HR department, the company’s management believes that the relationship between managers and employees would weaken, since matters such as airfield may be shifted from one department to another, and as a result, they may not be handled effectively. This is a viable strategy toward strengthening of the manager-employee relationship, which is key to the effective management of diversity (Toten 2013).\r\nAll employees as well as anyone who acts on behalf of the company is required to stick around to the company’s set principles of equality and diversity. whatsoever sort of unlawful discrimination in the workplace is not condoned, and the company has put in place demand measures to prevent its occurrence. Specifically, UKRD Group purposes to ensure that no job applicant or employee is subjected to unlawful discrimination based on gender, race, sexual orientation, disability, age, part-time status, or religion. This commitment is pee-peen into account at all aspects of employment such as training, recruitment, promotion and career-development opportunities, injury handling and the application of disciplinary procedures, and terms/conditions of employment. Because of the evolving spirit of the job market and the legislation changes, the company often reviews its policies regarding diversity, and implements relevant changes (UKRD Group Ltd, n.d.).\r\nRecommendations\r\nIn order for the UKRD Group to be at the forefront in ensuring diversity prevails in all its operations, it is necessary for its management to take into consideration the following suggestions. To start with, it should ensure it has a wide recruiting base. This can be achieved by adopting tools such as online job boards, where anyone with an access to the internet can view the job opportunities being advertised by the company. The company should also have a standard military rating form. By having a standard evaluation form, instances of discrimination will be eliminated, and it allows the hiring team to use the same criteria for all candidates (Thiederman 2008). Moreover, managers of UKRD should explain the benefits of diversity to the employees, and inform the new hires with the company’s culture. For instance, they can enlighten the roles the new hires are expected to execute, and explain to them the values treasured in the company (Hubbard 2004, p.85).\r\nConclusion\r\nThe supra discussion has explored the strategic benefits of diversity management, and examined how diversity is handled at UKRD Company Ltd. Since the market is becoming increasingly global, it is necessary for businesses to understand, acknowledge, and embrace diversity in their day-to-day operations, and in their workforce. Effective management of diversity is the key to leverage the benefits, and reducing the drawbacks associated with diversity in the workplace. Companies reap commodious benefits through effective management of diversity. For insta nce, pooling the diverse skills and experiences from different cultural and social backgrounds increases employees’ productivity and responsiveness to varying conditions. In addition, when employees are working in groups, diversity enables them to generate more and better ideas unlike when they come from the same social or cultural background. ground on this discussion, it is worthwhile arguing that companies should ensure diversity is well managed in order to thrive successfully.\r\nBibliography\r\nâ€Å"Diversity & Equal Opportunities Statement.” UKRD Group Ltd -. (n.d.). Available from . [14 August 2014].\r\nAbiodun, R. A. (2010). leaders behavior impact on employee’s loyalty, date and organizational performance:. [S.l.], Authorhouse.\r\nAswathappa, K. (2013). Human resource management: text and cases. New Delhi, McGraw Hill Education.\r\nBuhler, P. (2010). Human Resources care All the Information You Need to Manage Your supply and Meet Your Business Objectives. Cincinnati, F+W Media.\r\nCombe, C. (2013). Introduction to management. Oxford: Oxford University Press.\r\nGriffin, R. W. (2012). Fundamentals of management. Mason, OH, South-Western Cengage Learning.\r\nGuffey, M. E., & Loewy, D. (2010). Business communication: process and product. Mason, OH, South-Western/Cengage Learning.\r\nHubbard, E. E. (2004). The manager’s pocket guide to diversity management. Amherst, MA, HRD Press.\r\nMor-Barak, M. E. (2011). Managing diversity: toward a globally inclusive workplace. Los Angeles, SAGE.\r\nPaludi, M. A. (2012). Managing diversity in today’s workplace: strategies for employees and employers. Santa Barbara, Calif, ABC-CLIO.\r\nThiederman, S. B. (2008). Making diversity work: 7 steps for defeating bias in the workplace. New York, Kaplan Pub.\r\nToten, Mike. â€Å"Employee engagement case study: UK radio group.” Workplace Info -. Available from . [16 May 2013].\r\n'

'The Determinants of Consumer Price Index in Indonesia\r'

'[pic] THE DETERMINANTS OF CONSUMER scathe INDEX IN INDONESIA Instructor DR. Moussa Larbani Prep ard By Ali Faris(G0912449) Imala Hussain(G0822498) Ma Yue(G0918271) Mia Fathia(G0827756) Nurma Saleah(G0912298) Suthinee Suayngam(G0916798) Ulfah Hidayatun(G0815892) ECON 6030 ADVANCE QUANTITATIVE METHOD destinationination Paper Kulliyah of Economics and Management Sciences Department of teleph unrivalled circuit Administ balancen 2009/2010 Abstract The near well cognize and widely quoted economic indicator is the cost-of-living tycoon (Consumer expense Index).It represents an estimation of the change in scathes of consumer goods and go. Generally, it represents a step of our expenses on goods and serve we employ to meet our everyday necessitys. Severe problems to the overall delivery potful be caused if the legal injurys of consumer goods and services be of a sudden changed. This opus attempts to turn up the factors t chapeau influence the Consumer hurt Index. We value four unsettleds, namely, bills supply, gross interior(prenominal) product, have-to doe with rate, and sh be equipment casualty.By utilizing draw offly info from 1996 to 2008, this debate applies sixfold backslidings manner to summon the best clay sculpture and factors which stand beg off Consumer set Index. The solving indicates gross national product, interest rate, and armory value scoreificant effect to consumer price office, whitheras silver supply does not have significant effect. This study in addition finds that the blueest Adjusted R2 as goodness criteria of the position is derived when we implicate all the factors in the object lesson.Hence, we can conclude that those factors have every besotted or fainthearted contri exception to consumer price index. Keyword: Consumer Price Index, 1. INTRODUCTION From the starting time of civilization, tribes, countries and nations have always been looking for ways to take a shit prosperity and growt h so as to emend the banal of living for their own people. From the times of Caesar to leaders of today such as John F. Keneddy, things haven’t changed much. To attain prosperity wiz of the most great things is to maintain a full-blooded saving.However in that respect be somewhat(prenominal) factors that threaten a healthy saving such as ostentatiousness, economic recessions and legion(predicate) an separate(prenominal) factors. Despite all these threats and inevi defer slumps and declines in economy, an economy can be monitored and as such Consumer Price Index is bingle of the most important economic indicators. Using consumer price index, the health of the economy can be in check and the differentiate can take necessary preventive measures other than not taken could lead to devastating do in the form of high unemployment, bankruptcies, major fiscal losses etc.The consumer price index is a fixed- field goal price index as it represents the price of a cons tant quantities basket of goods and services purchased by the average consumer. CPI is one of the most frequently used statistics for identifying periods of inflation or deflation. This is because large trys in CPI during a piffling period of time typically denote periods of inflation and large drops in CPI during a gyp period of time usually mark periods of deflation. It is compiled by the Department of Labors Bureau of Labor Statistics.In order to arrive the final result for the CPI, wide investigatees of the prices of the included in the consumer basket goods and services atomic number 18 made. Then they are entered into a special computer program that makes the calculations. The wideness of CPI is viewed in the fact that the estimations of other products, services and benefits are directly relate to the levels of the CPI. For example, if the CPI experiences an profit in its regard as, then the Social Securities benefits leave rise as well. Other thin gs that are directly linked to CPI include: • Wages • Lease agreements occurity contracts • Benefit statements and etc. Severe problems to the overall economy can be caused if the prices of consumer goods and services are abruptly changed. Most people associate the concept of CPI with inflation. An outgrowth in the mensurate of the CPI intend that an profit in inflation has been observed. When inflation increases the give rise power of bullion is lost and people will change their spending habits as they meet their purchasing thresholds and producers will suffer and be forced to hack on output. This can be readily tied to higher(prenominal) unemployment range.The whole economy falls into a recession. The physical object of this paper is to find a additive backsliding exemplar that will accurately estimate the consumer pricing index of Indonesia by using the following self-governing versatiles, 1) coin supply, 2) Gross domestic product, 3) interest rank and 4) stock prices. In economics, specie supply is the total amount of money available in an economy at a particular point in time. T here(predicate) are several ways to subtend â€Å"money”, but standard measures usually include currency in circulation and beseech deposits.The gross domestic product (gross domestic product) or gross domestic income (GDI) is a basic measure of a countrys economic exploit and is the market value of all final goods and services made within the borders of a country in a year. It is a fundamental quantity of end product and is very much positively cor think with the standard of living. An interest rate is the price a borrower pays for the use of money they do not own, for instance a small comp both world power borrow from a bank to kick start their business, and the return a lender receives for deferring the use of funds, by lending it to the borrower.Interest rates are normally expressed as a percentage rate over the period of on e year. Stock Price in this paper is referred to as Stock crossbreedet index which is based on a statistical compilation of the share prices of a bit of representative stocks. We observe four uncertain quantitys namely, money supply, gross domestic product, interest rate, and stock price. By utilizing quarterly data from 1996 to 2008, this study applies eight-fold relapses method to find the best regulate and factors which can explain Consumer Price Index (See appendix 1 and 2). 2. methodological abstract 2. 1Bivariate Pearson CorrelationPearson [pic]is typically used to describe the strength of the elongated descent amid 2 quantitative variable quantitys. Often, these two variables are designated [pic]( prophesyor) and [pic](outcome). Pearson [pic] has value that range from -1. 00 to +1. 00. The sign of [pic]provides reading about the direction of the relationship mingled with [pic] and [pic]. A positive correlation indicates that as piles on [pic] increase, bulls eyes on [pic]also tend to increase; a negative correlation indicates that as matchs on [pic] increase, scores on [pic]neither increase nor decrease in a linear manner.The absolute magnitude of Pearson [pic] provides education about the strength of the linear association amongst scores on [pic] and [pic]. For values of [pic]close to 0, in that respect is no linear association between [pic] and [pic]. When [pic]= +1. 00, thither is a perfect positive linear association; when [pic]= -1. 00, on that point is a perfect negative linear association. arbitrate values of [pic]correspond to in circumstanceediate strength of the relationship (Warner, 2008). 2. 1. 1Assumption for Pearson [pic] (Warner, 2008)The assumptions that need to be met for Pearson [pic] to be an appropriate statistic to describe the relationship between a pair of variables are as follows: 1. Each scores on [pic] should be indie of other [pic] scores (and severally score on [pic]should be strong-minded of other [ pic]scores). 2. gain on both [pic]and [pic]should be quantitative and normally distributed. 3. Scores on [pic]should be linearly related to scores on[pic]. 4. [pic], [pic]scores should have a bivariate normal diffusion. 2. 1. delibe proportionalityn of Pearson [pic] (Warner, 2008) Formula to calculate Pearson [pic]from the edged scores on [pic]and [pic]is as follows: [pic](2. 1) 2. 1. 3Correlation ground substance (Warner, 2008) A correlation matrix usually denoted by R; it contains the correlations among all realistic pairs of [pic]variables. The entire set of correlation in an R matrix is as follow [pic] R = [pic][pic] preeminence several characteristics of this matrix. All the throw elements equal 1 (because the correlation of a variable with itself is, by comment, 1. 0).The matrix is â€Å"symmetric” because each element below the diagonal equals one corresponding element above the diagonal. 2. 2 double retroflections Multiple Regression analysis provides an comparison that bespeaks vulgar score on a quantitative [pic] variable from raw scores on [pic] variables, with [pic]. The prognosticator or [pic] variables are usually also quantitative, but it can also be a dichotomous variable (dummy variable). Usually, atavism analysis is used in non experimental research situations, in which the researcher has manipulated none of the variables.In the absence of an experimental design, causal inferences cannot be made. However, researchers a lot select at least some of the forecaster variables for retroversion analysis because they believe that these might be â€Å"causes” of the outcome variable. If an [pic] variable that is theorized to be a â€Å"cause” of [pic]fails to account for a significant amount of partitioning in the [pic] variable in the degeneration analysis, this outcome may give away the researcher’s belief that the [pic] variable has a causal connection with [pic].On the other hand, if a [pic] vari able that is thought to be â€Å"causal” does uniquely predict a significant proportion of variability in [pic] even when con erected variables or competing causal variables are statistically controlled, this outcome may be taken as consistent with the possibility of causality. (Warner, 2008) 1. The Multiple Regressions toughie Equation The raw score stochastic variable of relapse equation with [pic] soothsayer variables is written as follows [pic](2. 2) here [pic]is the predicted score on the outcome ([pic]) variable, [pic]is the intercept or constant term, [pic]are retroflection coefficients, and [pic]are prognosticator variables. The [pic] degeneration coefficient represent uncomplete slope. The [pic] slope represents the predicted change in [pic] for a one-unit increase in[pic], controlling for [pic](i. e. , controlling for all other soothsayer variables included in the atavism analysis). The standard score version of a simple lapsing equation with [pic] pred ictors is be as follows: [pic](2. ) where [pic]is [pic]scores on [pic], [pic]are beta coefficient that is used to predict The beta coefficients in the standard score version of the regression can be compared across variables to measure which of the predictor variables are more strongly related to the [pic]outcome variable when all the variables are represented in [pic]score form. Beta coefficient may be influenced by many types of artifacts such as unreliability of measurement and certified range of scores in the consume. (Warner, 2008) 2. Model buildThis paper use Stepwise regression mock up building to develop the least solids regression in steps, either to forward selection backward elimination, or done standards stepwise regression. The coefficient of partial aim is the measure of the borderline contribution of each independent variable, addicted that other independent variables are in the model. 2. 2. 3Statistics Sum-of-squares terms. Several regression statistics ar e computed as functions of the sums of-squares terms: [pic] (2. 4) Partitioning of variation.The regression equation is estimated such that the total sum-of squares can be partitioned into components due to regression and residuals: SST = SSR+ SSE(2. 5) Coefficient of determination. The explanatory power of the regression is summarized by its â€Å"R-square” value, computed from the sums-of-squares terms as [pic](2. 6) R2, also called the coefficient of determination, is often described as the proportion of class â€Å"accounted for”, â€Å"explained”, or â€Å"described” by regression. It is important to keep in mind that a high R2 does not necessitate causation.The congress sizes of the sums-of-squares terms indicate how â€Å"good” the regression is in terms of fitting the calibration data. If the regression is â€Å"perfect”, all residuals are zero, SSE is zero, and R2 is 1. If the regression is a total failure, the sum-of-squares of residuals equals the total sum-of-squares, no variance is accounted for by regression, and R2 is zero. Adjusted R2. The R2 value for a regression can be made arbitrarily high s implicate by including more and more predictors in the model. The adjusted R2 is one of several statistics that attempts to compensate for this mawkish increase in accuracy.The adjusted R2 is given by: [pic](2. 7) n = warning size (e. g. , government issue of geezerhood of data in calibration period) p = number of predictors in the model, not counting the constant term As shown by the equation, R2 with hat is lower than R2 if the model has more than one predictor. Adding predictors has the effect of increasing the deflexion between R2 with hat and R2. Adjusted R2 is also recyclable in comparing among models. ANOVA control panel and definition of â€Å" soused squared” terms. The sums-of-squares terms and related statistics are often summarized in an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) table: [pic] Sour ce= source of variationSS= sum-of-squares term df= degrees of exemption for SS term MS= â€Å" have in mind squared” terms The slopped squared terms are the sums-of-squares terms timeworn computer wrongful conduct of the estimate. The residual mean square (MSE) is the sample estimate of the variance of the regression residuals. The population value of the error term is sometimes written as ? e2 mend the sample estimate is given by se2 = MSE(2. 8) where MSE has been defined previously. The square root of the residual mean square is called the root-mean-square error (RMSE), or the standard error of the estimate. [pic](2. 9) The subscript â€Å"c” is attached (RMSEc) in (4. ) to fork the RMSE derived from calibration from the root-mean-square error derived by cross-validation (see later). F ratio or â€Å"overall F”. Recall that the explanatory power of a regression is given by the regression R2, which is computed from sums-of-squares terms. The F-ratio, or o verall F, which is computed from the mean squared terms in the ANOVA table, estimates the statistical substance of the regression equation. The F-ratio is given by [pic](2. 10) The advantage of the F- ratio over R2 is that the F- ratio takes into account the degrees of emancipation, which depend on the sample size and the number of predictors in the model.A model can have a high R2 and good-tempered not be statistically significant if the sample size is not large compared with the number of predictors in the model. The F- ratio incorporates sample size and number of predictors in an assessment of significance of the relationship. The significance of the F- ratio is obtained by referring to a table of the F dissemination, using degrees of freedom {df1,df2}, where df1 and df2 are the degrees of freedom for the regression mean square and residual mean square from the ANOVA table.How to slump or pass judgment F-test (for overall significance) HO: ? 1 = ? 2 HA : ? 1 and ? 2 not bot h zero ? = . 05 Decision: Reject Ho if the f-stat falls in the rejection area (p values > ? = . 05) [pic] T-test. The T-test shows if in that location is a linear relationship between the variable xi and y. The test statistic: [pic](2. 11) How to reject or accept T-test (for individual significance) HO: ? 1 = 0 HA : ? 1 ? 0 ? = . 05 Decision: Reject Ho if the test statistic for each variable falls in the rejection region (p values < . 05) [pic]Confidence detachment for estimated coefficients. If the regression assumptions on the residuals are satisfied, including the normality assumption, then the sampling distribution of an estimated regression coefficient is normal with a variance proportional to the residual mean square (MSE). The variance of the computing machine also depends on the variances and covariances of the predictors. The idea is best illustrated for the facial expression of simple linear regression, for which the variance of the regression coefficient is giv en by [pic](2. 12)Where Se2 is the residual mean square, xi is the value of the predictor in year xi with hat is the mean of the predictor, and the summation is over the n eld in the calibration period. The 100 (1 ? ?) % confidence interval is [pic], where t? /2 is obtained from s t distribution with n-2 degrees of freedom. For more than one predictor, the confidence intervals for regression can be computed similarly, but the equation is more complicated. The equation for the variances and covariances of estimated coefficients is expressed in matrix terms by [pic](2. 13) where X is the time series matrix of predictors.This equation returns a matrix, with the variances of the parameters along the diagonal, and the covariances as the off-diagonal elements (Weisberg 1985, p. 44). The appropriate degrees of freedom of the t distribution is df = n ? K ? 1, where K is the number of predictors in the model, and n is the sample size. Multicolinearity The predictors in a regression model ar e often called the â€Å"independent variables”, but this term does not imply that the predictors are themselves independent statistically from one another. In fact, for natural systems, the predictors can be highly intercorrelated. Multicolinearity” is a term reserved to describe the case when the intercorrelation of predictor variables is high. It has been noted that the variance of the estimated regression coefficients depends on the intercorrelation of predictors. Haan (2002) in short summarizes the effects of multicolinearity on the regression model. Multicolinearity does not evacuate the regression model in the sense that the prognosticative value of the equation may still be good as long as the prophecy are based on combinations of predictors within the alike multivariate space used to calibrate the equation.But there are several negative effects of multicolinearity. First, the variance of the regression coefficients can be inflated so much that the individual coefficients are not statistically significant †even though the overall regression equation is strong and the predictive ability good. Second, the relative magnitudes and even the signs of the coefficients may defy interpretation. For example, the regression encumbrance on a tree-ring index in a multivariate regression equation to predict rushing might be negative even though the tree-ring index by itself is positively correlated with precipitation.Third, the values of the individual regression coefficients may change radically with the removal or addition of a predictor variable in the equation. In fact, the sign of the coefficient might even switch. Signs of multicolinearity. Signs of multicolinearity include 1) high correlation between pairs of predictor variables, 2) regression coefficients whose signs or magnitudes do not make good physical sense, 3) statistically non-significant regression coefficients on important predictors, and 4) extreme sensitivity of sign or magn itude of regression coefficients to insertion or deletion of a predictor variable.Variance Inflation reckon (VIF). The Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) is a statistic that can be used to identify multicolinearity in a matrix of predictor variables. â€Å"Variance Inflation” refers here to the mentioned effect of multicolinearity on the variance of estimated regression coefficients. Multicolinearity depends not just on the bivariate correlations between pairs of predictors, but on the multivariate predictability of any one predictor from the other predictors. Accordingly, the VIF is based on the multiple coefficient of determination in regression of eachpredictor in multivariate linear regression on all the other predictors: pic](2. 14) where Ri2 is the multiple coefficient of determination in a regression of the ith predictor on all other predictors, and i VIF is the variance inflation factor associated with the ith predictor. Note that if the ith predictor is independent of the other predictors, the variance inflation factor is one, while if the ith predictor can be almost perfectly predicted from the other predictors, the variance inflation factor approaches infinity. In that case the variance of the estimated regression coefficients is unbounded.Multicolinearity is said to be a problem when the variance inflation factors of one or more predictors becomes large. How large it appears to be a subjective judgement. According to Haan (2002), some researchers use a VIF of 5 and others use a VIF of 10 as a critical threshold. These VIF values correspond, respectively, to Ri2 values of 0. 80 and 0. 90. Some compute the average VIF for all predictors and reserve that an average â€Å"considerably” larger than one indicates multicolinearity (Haan, 2002).At any rate, it is important to keep in mind that multicolinearity requires strong intercorrelation of predictors, not just non-zero intercorrelation. The VIF is closely related to a statistic call the tolerance, which is 1/VIF. Some statistics packages report the VIF and some report the tolerance (Haan 2002). 3. MODEL SPESIFICATION AND DATA acknowledgment Based on the theory review in the previous section, we build the following specification to inhibit the determinants of money supply in Indonesia: CPI = ? 0 + ? 1M1 + ? 2GDP + ? 3IR + ? 4SP + ? The variables are defined as followed: 1.Money supply (M1) is M0 (physical currency) and demand deposits, which are checking accounts. This is used as a measurement for economists trying to quantify the amount of money in circulation. The M1 is a very liquid measure of the money supply, as it contains cash and assets that can quickly be converted to currency. 2. Gross Domestic crossing (GDP) is the income of individuals or nations after adjusting for inflation. 3. Consumer price index (CPI) is an index number measuring the average price of consumer goods and services purchased by households. 4. Interest rate (IR) is a fee paying on bo rrowed capital. . role Price (SP) is the price of one share of stock. This paper uses quarterly data, from quarter 1 of 1996 to quarter 2 of 2008 that is taken from International financial Statistic. We also use SPSS software to regress the model above. 4. VALUATION 4. 1Model Estimation We will present the result of data analysis using Multiple Regression Analysis. Multiple Regression analysis provides an equation that predicts raw score on a quantitative [pic] variable from raw scores on [pic] variables, with[pic]. The best model is indicated by the highest Adjusted R2 and the lowest standard errors.In this study, consumer price indexes (CPI) were predicted from the following variables: money supply (M1), gross domestic product (GDP), interest rate (IR) and share price (SP). The sample size[pic]is 50. 4. 2Bivariate correlation In this part, we will observe the strength of the linear relationship between each independent variable and CPI. Table 1. Correlations | | |CPI |M1 |GDP |I R |SP | |1996Q1 |11. 716111 |19. 30 |4. 771904 |3. 788341 |3. 853983 |0. 065642 | |1996Q2 |11. 766373 |19. 4 |4. 819983 |3. 822246 |3. 858643 |0. 036398 | |1996Q3 |11. 827298 |19. 17 |4. 717570 |3. 877778 |3. 863081 |-0. 014697 | |1996Q4 |11. 879324 |19. 16 |4. 810590 |3. 909344 |3. 872063 |-0. 037281 | |1997Q1 |11. 889998 |18. 98 |4. 934683 |3. 905124 |3. 897606 |-0. 007518 | |1997Q2 |11. 914423 |18. 72 |4. 941414 |3. 921527 |3. 906252 |-0. 015275 | |1997Q3 |12. 002958 |23. 38 |4. 78997 |4. 036802 |3. 924765 |-0. 112037 | |1997Q4 |12. 039144 |26. 19 |4. 477901 |4. 111444 |3. 959830 |-0. 151614 | |1998Q1 |12. 262335 |26. 33 |4. 624532 |4. 270861 |4. 140733 |-0. 130127 | |1998Q2 |12. 314070 |32. 16 |4. 495154 |4. 363053 |4. 309088 |-0. 053965 | |1998Q3 |12. 484700 |34. 93 |4. 308177 |4. 530508 |4. 491942 |-0. 038566 | |1998Q4 |12. 457244 |35. 20 |4. 294247 |4. 12515 |4. 538626 |0. 026111 | |1999Q1 |12. 510708 |34. 11 |4. 396215 |4. 536868 |4. 585091 |0. 048223 | |1999Q2 |12. 512071 | 30. 34 |4. 767910 |4. 478028 |4. 578437 |0. 100409 | |1999Q3 |12. 533785 |24. 52 |4. 754038 |4. 455257 |4. 555728 |0. 100470 | |1999Q4 |12. 525806 |21. 68 |4. 830264 |4. 422381 |4. 555029 |0. 132648 | |2000Q1 |12. 689215 |19. 58 |4. 798267 |4. 536245 |4. 79349 |0. 043104 | |2000Q2 |12. 725801 |18. 46 |4. 615507 |4. 572988 |4. 589384 |0. 016396 | |2000Q3 |12. 796032 |17. 98 |4. 534614 |4. 630870 |4. 611431 |-0. 019440 | |2000Q4 |12. 817033 |17. 80 |4. 436443 |4. 654596 |4. 639514 |-0. 015082 | |2001Q1 |12. 894097 |17. 85 |4. 423641 |4. 715383 |4. 668689 |-0. 046693 | |2001Q2 |12. 957670 |18. 26 |4. 396349 |4. 769620 |4. 695093 |-0. 74527 | |2001Q3 |12. 980581 |18. 88 |4. 453272 |4. 786409 |4. 731538 |-0. 054871 | |2001Q4 |12. 967675 |19. 20 |4. 357638 |4. 787355 |4. 758569 |-0. 028785 | |2002Q1 |13. 014972 |19. 32 |4. 495629 |4. 812124 |4. 804455 |-0. 007668 | |2002Q2 |13. 038967 |19. 18 |4. 670443 |4. 813862 |4. 813371 |-0. 000492 | |2002Q3 |13. 083051 |18. 87 |4. 499660 |4. 860963 |4. 830240 |-0. 030724 | |2002Q4 |13. 67842 |18. 42 |4. 383610 |4. 856585 |4. 856372 |-0. 000213 | |2003Q1 |13. 119451 |18. 20 |4. 382903 |4. 894774 |4. 879052 |-0. 015721 | |2003Q2 |13. 127729 |17. 68 |4. 568618 |4. 880785 |4. 881073 |0. 000288 | |2003Q3 |13. 168067 |16. 44 |4. 706932 |4. 890676 |4. 889544 |-0. 001132 | |2003Q4 |13. 145558 |15. 43 |4. 867750 |4. 851847 |4. 910358 |0. 058511 | |2004Q1 |13. 193018 |14. 0 |5. 023394 |4. 869902 |4. 926710 |0. 056808 | |2004Q2 |13. 243557 |14. 28 |5. 023446 |4. 905169 |4. 946239 |0. 041070 | |2004Q3 |13. 296856 |13. 88 |5. 055704 |4. 940406 |4. 956855 |0. 016449 | |2004Q4 |13. 303815 |13. 54 |5. 255827 |4. 925389 |4. 972241 |0. 046852 | |2005Q1 |13. 357168 |13. 36 |5. 375579 |4. 954380 |5. 001198 |0. 046817 | |2005Q2 |13. 415743 |13. 29 |5. 03708 |4. 996403 |5. 019906 |0. 023503 | |2005Q3 |13. 477237 |13. 78 |5. 410051 |5. 046527 |5. 037628 |-0. 008900 | |2005Q4 |13. 539065 |15. 78 |5. 387751 |5. 110080 |5. 135998 |0. 025918 | |2006Q1 | 13. 570606 |16. 34 |5. 539352 |5. 124611 |5. 157502 |0. 032891 | |2006Q2 |13. 608447 |16. 23 |5. 624725 |5. 145281 |5. 164111 |0. 018831 | |2006Q3 |13. 676882 |16. 00 |5. 78345 |5. 191494 |5. 176234 |-0. 015260 | |2006Q4 |13. 679898 |15. 35 |5. 839146 |5. 174745 |5. 194761 |0. 020015 | |2007Q1 |13. 732362 |14. 70 |5. 885796 |5. 206364 |5. 219177 |0. 012812 | |2007Q2 |13. 777640 |14. 08 |6. 039466 |5. 223014 |5. 222613 |-0. 000401 | |2007Q3 |13. 848229 |13. 56 |6. 144445 |5. 264208 |5. 239273 |-0. 024935 | |2007Q4 |13. 855779 |13. 11 |6. 305412 |5. 52354 |5. 259836 |0. 007483 | |2008Q1 |13. 930695 |12. 94 |6. 292750 |5. 309960 |5. 292817 |-0. 017143 | |2008Q2 |14. 023264 |12. 95 |6. 172412 |5. 392000 |5. 199684 |-0. 192316 | |  |  |  |  |  | |0. 175227 | From the table above, we found the sum square value of error is 0. 175. Predict Consumer Price index (CPI) for a quarter in which the logarithmic of GDP is 12. 89 logarithmic of Interest Rate is 17. 5 and logarithmic o f Share Price is 4. 42 LCPI = -4. 927 + 0. 769 (LGDP) + 0. 007 (LIR) †0. 090 (LSP) = -4. 927 + 0. 769 (12. 89) + 0. 007 (17. 52) †0. 090 (4. 42) = 4. 72 Confidence interval for the mean LCPI value : [pic]; [pic] [pic] [pic] Prediction interval for the mean LCPI value : [pic]; [pic] [pic] [pic] CONCLUSION We have employed multiple regression analysis method, which involve five variables which are expected to affecting money supply. They are consumer price index, interest rate, stock price, GDP, and money supply [M1]. The data are selected from Indonesia international financial statistics.In the recent eld Indonesia has been successfully controlling its money supply to get stability in economic circumstances. From the study we found out that there is strong relationship between consumer price index [CPI]and GDP. When the Gross Domestic Product [GDP] increases, it will also increase consumer price index as these two have linear relationship. as well there is strong correlat ion between money supply and consumer price index, which means that mean of CPI increase when money supply increases. Addition to this there is positive correlation between stock price and CPI, when stock price increase it tend to increase CPI.However there is negative correlation between interest rate and CPI, when interest rate increases, CPI decreases. From our conclusion it shows that R-square is 96 percent, which means it is a good model to describe the relation between CPI and other variables we use in the study. REFERENCES Lawrence S. Meyers, Glenn Gamst, and A. J. Guarino. (2006). Applied Multivariate enquiry Design and Interpretation. Thousand Oaks, capital of the United Kingdom, and modernistic Delhi: Sage Publications. Miles, Jeremy and Mark Shevlin. (2001). Applying Regression & Correlation: A Guide for Students and Researchers. London: Sage Publications. Warner, R. M. (2008).Applied Statistics From Bivariate Through Multivariate Techniques. Los Angeles, London, N ew Delhi, Singapore: SAGE Publications. Watson, Collin J. and et al. (1993). Statistics for Management and Economics fifth Edition. Massachusetts: Allyn and Bacon. http://www. investopedia. com http://www. stock-market-investors. com http://www. wikipedia. org Appendix 1. Variables Data |  |M1 |Stock Price |CPI |INTEREST RATE |GDP | | | | | | | | |1996Q1 |53162. 00 |118. 14 |47. 8 |19. 30 |122530. 00 | |1996Q2 |56448. 00 |123. 96 |47. 40 |19. 24 |128846. 00 | |1996Q3 |59684. 00 |111. 90 |47. 61 |19. 17 |136940. 00 | |1996Q4 |64089. 00 |122. 80 |48. 04 |19. 16 |144253. 00 | |1997Q1 |63565. 00 |139. 03 |49. 28 |18. 98 |145801. 00 | |1997Q2 |69950. 00 |139. 97 |49. 71 |18. 72 |149406. 00 | |1997Q3 |66258. 00 |118. 99 |50. 64 |23. 8 |163237. 00 | |1997Q4 |78343. 00 |88. 05 |52. 45 |26. 19 |169252. 00 | |1998Q1 |98270. 30 |101. 96 |62. 85 |26. 33 |211575. 00 | |1998Q2 |109480. 00 |89. 58 |74. 37 |32. 16 |222809. 00 | |1998Q3 |102563. 00 |74. 30 |89. 29 |34. 93 |264263. 00 | |1998Q4 |1 01197. 00 |73. 28 |93. 56 |35. 20 |257106. 00 | |1999Q1 |105705. 00 |81. 14 |98. 01 |34. 11 |271226. 0 | |1999Q2 |105964. 00 |117. 67 |97. 36 |30. 34 |271596. 00 | |1999Q3 |118124. 00 |116. 05 |95. 18 |24. 52 |277558. 00 | |1999Q4 |124633. 00 |125. 24 |95. 11 |21. 68 |275352. 00 | |2000Q1 |124663. 00 |121. 30 |97. 45 |19. 58 |324232. 00 | |2000Q2 |133832. 00 |101. 04 |98. 43 |18. 46 |336314. 00 | |2000Q3 |135430. 00 |93. 19 |100. 63 |17. 98 |360783. 00 | |2000Q4 |162186. 0 |84. 47 |103. 49 |17. 80 |368440. 00 | |2001Q1 |148375. 00 |83. 40 |106. 56 |17. 85 |397956. 00 | |2001Q2 |160142. 00 |81. 15 |109. 41 |18. 26 |424077. 00 | |2001Q3 |164237. 00 |85. 91 |113. 47 |18. 88 |433905. 00 | |2001Q4 |177731. 00 |78. 07 |116. 58 |19. 20 |428341. 00 | |2002Q1 |166173. 00 |89. 62 |122. 05 |19. 32 |449087. 00 | |2002Q2 |174017. 00 |106. 5 |123. 15 |19. 18 |459993. 00 | |2002Q3 |181791. 00 |89. 99 |125. 24 |18. 87 |480725. 00 | |2002Q4 |191939. 00 |80. 13 |128. 56 |18. 42 |473469. 00 | |2003Q1 |181239. 00 |80. 07 |131. 51 |18. 20 |498546. 00 | |2003Q2 |195219. 00 |96. 41 |131. 77 |17. 68 |502690. 00 | |2003Q3 |207587. 00 |110. 71 |132. 89 |16. 44 |523382. 00 | |2003Q4 |223799. 00 |130. 03 |135. 9 |15. 43 |511733. 00 | |2004Q1 |219087. 00 |151. 93 |137. 93 |14. 80 |536605. 00 | |2004Q2 |226147. 00 |151. 93 |140. 65 |14. 28 |564422. 00 | |2004Q3 |234676. 00 |156. 92 |142. 15 |13. 88 |595321. 00 | |2004Q4 |245946. 00 |191. 68 |144. 35 |13. 54 |599478. 00 | |2005Q1 |244003. 00 |216. 07 |148. 59 |13. 36 |632331. 00 | |2005Q2 |261814. 00 |222. 23 |151. 40 |13. 9 |670476. 00 | |2005Q3 |267762. 00 |223. 64 |154. 10 |13. 78 |713000. 00 | |2005Q4 |271166. 00 |218. 71 |170. 03 |15. 78 |758475. 00 | |2006Q1 |270425. 00 |254. 51 |173. 73 |16. 34 |782779. 00 | |2006Q2 |303803. 00 |277. 20 |174. 88 |16. 23 |812968. 00 | |2006Q3 |323885. 00 |292. 47 |177. 02 |16. 00 |870551. 00 | |2006Q4 |347013. 00 |343. 49 |180. 33 |15. 35 |873181. 0 | |2007Q1 |331736. 00 |359. 89 |184. 78 |14. 70 |920 214. 00 | |2007Q2 |371768. 00 |419. 67 |185. 42 |14. 08 |962838. 00 | |2007Q3 |400075. 00 |466. 12 |188. 53 |13. 56 |1033260. 00 | |2007Q4 |450055. 00 |547. 53 |192. 45 |13. 11 |1041090. 00 | |2008Q1 |409768. 00 |540. 64 |198. 90 |12. 94 |1122080. 00 | |2008Q2 |453093. 00 |479. 34 |181. 22 |12. 95 |1230910. 00 |Appendix 2. lose of Variable Data |  |lm1 |lsp |lcpi |lgdp |ir | |1996Q1 |10. 881099 |4. 771904 |3. 853983 |11. 716111 |19. 30 | |1996Q2 |10. 941075 |4. 819983 |3. 858643 |11. 766373 |19. 24 | |1996Q3 |10. 996819 |4. 717570 |3. 863081 |11. 827298 |19. 17 | |1996Q4 |11. 068028 |4. 810590 |3. 872063 |11. 879324 |19. 16 | |1997Q1 |11. 059818 |4. 934683 |3. 897606 |11. 889998 |18. 98 | |1997Q2 |11. 55536 |4. 941414 |3. 906252 |11. 914423 |18. 72 | |1997Q3 |11. 101311 |4. 778997 |3. 924765 |12. 002958 |23. 38 | |1997Q4 |11. 268852 |4. 477901 |3. 959830 |12. 039144 |26. 19 | |1998Q1 |11. 495477 |4. 624532 |4. 140733 |12. 262335 |26. 33 | |1998Q2 |11. 603497 |4. 495154 |4. 30908 8 |12. 314070 |32. 16 | |1998Q3 |11. 538233 |4. 308177 |4. 491942 |12. 484700 |34. 93 | |1998Q4 |11. 524824 |4. 294247 |4. 538626 |12. 57244 |35. 20 | |1999Q1 |11. 568407 |4. 396215 |4. 585091 |12. 510708 |34. 11 | |1999Q2 |11. 570855 |4. 767910 |4. 578437 |12. 512071 |30. 34 | |1999Q3 |11. 679490 |4. 754038 |4. 555728 |12. 533785 |24. 52 | |1999Q4 |11. 733129 |4. 830264 |4. 555029 |12. 525806 |21. 68 | |2000Q1 |11. 733369 |4. 798267 |4. 579349 |12. 689215 |19. 58 | |2000Q2 |11. 804341 |4. 615507 |4. 589384 |12. 725801 |18. 46 | |2000Q3 |11. 16210 |4. 534614 |4. 611431 |12. 796032 |17. 98 | |2000Q4 |11. 996499 |4. 436443 |4. 639514 |12. 817033 |17. 80 | |2001Q1 |11. 907498 |4. 423641 |4. 668689 |12. 894097 |17. 85 | |2001Q2 |11. 983816 |4. 396349 |4. 695093 |12. 957670 |18. 26 | |2001Q3 |12. 009066 |4. 453272 |4. 731538 |12. 980581 |18. 88 | |2001Q4 |12. 088026 |4. 357638 |4. 758569 |12. 967675 |19. 20 | |2002Q1 |12. 020785 |4. 495629 |4. 804455 |13. 14972 |19. 32 | |2002Q2 |12. 066 908 |4. 670443 |4. 813371 |13. 038967 |19. 18 | |2002Q3 |12. 110613 |4. 499660 |4. 830240 |13. 083051 |18. 87 | |2002Q4 |12. 164933 |4. 383610 |4. 856372 |13. 067842 |18. 42 | |2003Q1 |12. 107572 |4. 382903 |4. 879052 |13. 119451 |18. 20 | |2003Q2 |12. 181877 |4. 568618 |4. 881073 |13. 127729 |17. 68 | |2003Q3 |12. 243306 |4. 706932 |4. 889544 |13. 168067 |16. 44 | |2003Q4 |12. 18504 |4. 867750 |4. 910358 |13. 145558 |15. 43 | |2004Q1 |12. 297224 |5. 023394 |4. 926710 |13. 193018 |14. 80 | |2004Q2 |12. 328941 |5. 023446 |4. 946239 |13. 243557 |14. 28 | |2004Q3 |12. 365961 |5. 055704 |4. 956855 |13. 296856 |13. 88 | |2004Q4 |12. 412867 |5. 255827 |4. 972241 |13. 303815 |13. 54 | |2005Q1 |12. 404936 |5. 375579 |5. 001198 |13. 357168 |13. 36 | |2005Q2 |12. 475390 |5. 403708 |5. 19906 |13. 415743 |13. 29 | |2005Q3 |12. 497854 |5. 410051 |5. 037628 |13. 477237 |13. 78 | |2005Q4 |12. 510486 |5. 387751 |5. 135998 |13. 539065 |15. 78 | |2006Q1 |12. 507750 |5. 539352 |5. 157502 |13. 570606 | 16. 34 | |2006Q2 |12. 624135 |5. 624725 |5. 164111 |13. 608447 |16. 23 | |2006Q3 |12. 688144 |5. 678345 |5. 176234 |13. 676882 |16. 00 | |2006Q4 |12. 757118 |5. 839146 |5. 194761 |13. 679898 |15. 5 | |2007Q1 |12. 712095 |5. 885796 |5. 219177 |13. 732362 |14. 70 | |2007Q2 |12. 826025 |6. 039466 |5. 222613 |13. 777640 |14. 08 | |2007Q3 |12. 899407 |6. 144445 |5. 239273 |13. 848229 |13. 56 | |2007Q4 |13. 017125 |6. 305412 |5. 259836 |13. 855779 |13. 11 | |2008Q1 |12. 923346 |6. 292750 |5. 292817 |13. 930695 |12. 94 | |2008Q2 |13. 023853 |6. 172412 |5. 199684 |14. 023264 |12. 95 | ———————†[pic] [pic] [pic]\r\n'